Observing China is the essential newsletter to understand the UK-PRC relationship, explained in the context of global developments.
This week in Beijing, tips on organ transplanting to achieve immortality were reportedly exchanged between two of the most influential leaders in the world – but that’s too chilling and creepy to delve into, so I will stick to geopolitical analysis for now.
‘Pick our side’ is the overarching message sent by Beijing during the two headlining events, which put it on the world stage in the past few days. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) repeatedly calls for a ‘multipolar world’ – in other words, it calls for a usurpation of the current world order towards one that lessens the power of free and open countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK) and United States (US).
In this worldview, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is not equal to other countries, despite such claims. Instead, Beijing wishes to position itself as a supposedly less oppressive, alternative leader to the US. It’s a bit of an ‘all countries are equal, but some are more equal than others’ situation. Through the events of the past week, Beijing has promulgated the image of itself as a ringleader of all oppressed nations who may have felt spurned by influential powers such as the US.
Leaders of some of these nations flocked to the PRC, and, stealing the show so far is Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, who made a rare international visit to Beijing, accompanied by his teenage daughter and potential heir – believed to be her first overseas visit.
Political commentary in global news posited the question of whether the events of the past week constitute a potential challenge to the world order. What were the happenings over in the PRC?
First, on 31st August and 1st September, the PRC hosted a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin. A CCP-led economic and security organisation, described as a counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), many of the SCO’s ten members are heavily aligned with Moscow in particular. Regarding concrete outcomes, it is thus far mostly limited to a few joint military drills.
But the SCO is increasing in scope – at this year’s summit, the leaders of about a dozen other countries joined as dialogue partners and guests, including Turkey, Slovenia and Slovakia. And of course, these three countries given as an example are also NATO members.
The second event was a very large military parade through Tiananmen Square in Beijing to commemorate the official surrender of Japan at the end of the Second World War – or, as it’s known in the PRC, the Chinese People’s War against Japanese Aggression, a part of the World Anti-Fascist War. Many of the leaders who were present at the SCO summit in Tianjin also attended the military parade.
What is curious about this military parade is that the PRC only started marking the date – 3rd September – a decade ago, and at a fraction of the budget spent on this year’s parade. What is Beijing trying to tell the world with this parade, both about its own version of history and its power?
Was it just peacocking, or is this indeed the beginning of a ‘new era’?
Welcome back to Observing China.
1.1 UK-Japan Joint Statement calls out PRC’s regional aggression
On 28th August, Britain and Japan issued a joint ministerial statement following the meeting between John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence and Nakatani Gen, Minister of Defence of Japan, who met in Tokyo as the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 2025 (CSG2025) undertook a three-week visit to Japan.
The joint statement called out Beijing’s regional aggression in the South China Sea and its assistance to the Kremlin in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which the Chinese Embassy in London described as ‘wrongful statements’, urging the UK and Japan to ‘reflect’ on their words and actions.
1.2 Britain and its allies publish intelligence report pointing the finger at Beijing
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) – a division of Government Communication Headquarters (GCHQ) – issued an official advisory alongside a number of allies, which names specific PRC-based companies found to have targeted governments and critical communication systems in the US and other countries.
2.1 ‘Overthrow the Communist tyranny’: Fifty minutes of protest in the PRC
A PRC national managed to project anti-CCP slogans onto a tall building in Chongqing remotely from the UK. The person who has claimed responsibility stated that time was of the essence: he wanted to protest in the lead-up to Beijing’s bombastic military parade, which aimed to legitimise the CCP further.
2.2 Leaders flock to the PRC for dual celebrations
The two large events in the PRC this week attracted a number of leaders from countries around the world, many of whom are known for their hostility towards the free and open order, or are otherwise highly controversial figures. Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, and Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services and Acting President of Myanmar (for whom the International Criminal Court sought an arrest warrant) attended the events alongside Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, and Kim Jong Un.
2.3 PRC and India bilateral relationship shows signs of improvement
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, met Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, on the sidelines of the SCO summit. Expressions of goodwill were exchanged in a relationship which has historically been fraught with mostly territorial tensions. It was the first such bilateral visit in seven years. The UK and PRC currently stand at the same record, with the last visit of a British head of state to the PRC being seven years ago when Theresa May, former Prime Minister, visited Beijing.
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, President of the US, are further complicating the geopolitical picture. Trump imposed a 50% tariff rate on goods from India as punishment for New Delhi buying Russian oil. As a result, not only is India annoyed with the US, but the PRC stepped in to fill the purchasing vacuum by buying more Russian oil.
Another sideline meeting during the SCO saw Modi and Putin mingle, during which Modi stated that Russia and India are ‘dear friends’.
2.4 A patriotic trim to coincide with the military parade
In the weeks leading up to yesterday’s military parade, a hairdresser in Beijing found herself at the request of an increasing number of young boys desiring military designs for their haircuts to align with the big event in Tiananmen Square. Tanks and flags of the PRC were some of the most sought-after shapes.
2.5 Vietnam engages in race to militarise disputed islets in South China Sea
According to the report cited in The Times, Vietnam has now created approximately 70% as much artificial land in the disputed Spratly Islands – a small disputed group of islands in the South China Sea – as Beijing has. Runways, storage for explosive munitions and other military facilities are some of the structures which Vietnam is constructing to show Beijing that two can play at this game.
2.6 PRC and Armenia sign strategic partnership after SCO summit
Since the outbreak of the renewed Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, experts have pointed to Yerevan’s disappointment at what it perceives as a lack of sufficient support from Moscow – which was supposed to be a core security ally. While the analysis indicates Armenia’s foreign policy shift more towards the European Union (EU) and the US – away from Russia – this latest strategic partnership is an interesting addition to the equation. Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, attended the SCO summit in Tianjin.
2.7 World Trade Organisation blames tariffs for global trade disruptions
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), stated that global trade is experiencing the largest disruption of the last 80 years, with the share of trade conducted on WTO terms falling by 72%. According to Okonjo-Iweala, tariffs are to blame for this. Of all the tariffs imposed by the US, the world is watching the impact on the PRC the most.
3.1 A breakdown by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) looks at some core changes of the PRC’s military, from its defence spending to its equipment.
3.2 Expert analysis in Foreign Policy encourages caution on overestimating the potential rapprochement between India and the PRC, explaining that while there is certainly an improvement in the bilateral relationship, New Delhi has no desire to see Beijing become a far more powerful regional player than itself – nor do the two countries have much in common, aside from a physical border.
3.3 A rare survey conducted on PRC nationals found that public opinion is divided on whether Beijing should seek global leadership or global dominance.
4.1 You can read the English version of Xi’s speech at the SCO summit here. Russia and the PRC, both founding members of the SCO, resolutely refute the notion that the organisation is ‘anti-NATO’, or against the free and open international order in a fundamental manner. In his speech at the SCO summit, Xi explained that a key tenet of the organisation is upholding ‘fairness and justice’. In this explanation, Xi supported the legitimacy of organisations such as the United Nations and the WTO, which is a smart tactic to praise institutions established by free and open countries and presentationally align the PRC with their values.
4.2 An op-ed in the People’s Daily, a CCP-administered newspaper, provides us with the PRC’s go-to version of the Second World War – how the CCP sees it, and most importantly, wants both the nation it governs and the outside world to see it. Unsurprisingly, Beijing is not happy with increasing defence ties between Japan and a number of liberal democratic countries. In response, the PRC is eager to remind the world of Japan’s fascism during the period, while painting present cooperation with other countries as attempts to remilitarise. ‘Certain actors deliberately distort historical facts to advance strategies aimed at containing China’, reads a stark sentence from the piece.
Whispers in Westminster say that Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, might be heading out to Beijing before the end of the year. Will he be the latest leader to pay homage to Xi?
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Grace Theodoulou – Policy Fellow, China Observatory
Email: grace@geostrategy.org.uk
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