The Investigator | No. 16/2025
On 3rd September, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of what it calls – with Chinese characteristics and prolixity – the Chinese People’s War against Japanese Aggression, a part of the World Anti-Fascist War (the Second World War). In the past, 15 parades have been held on 1st October – the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) ‘National Day’ – and only one explicitly military parade on 3rd September, the day after Japan’s surrender in Asia. That parade, in 2015, was the initiative of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP and also Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), therefore commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – the armed forces of the PRC.
The CCP rightly points out that the Chinese have never been given sufficient credit for their contribution to the victory in the Second World War. They fought for 14 years, suffered 35 million casualties and tied down well over a million Japanese troops and their materiel; resources which would otherwise have been deployed against the Americans in the Pacific and the British in Burma.
Yet, 80 years after the end of the war, such a parade seems out of place to many outsiders, for whom reconciliation has long replaced hostility. For the CCP, the effort and expense are not without reason, nor without the sacrifice of truth in the service of propaganda. The Chinese Civil War continued for much of the 14 years of resistance. The bulk of the fighting was carried out by the army of the Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang (KMT), while the CCP kept its powder dry for the eventual struggle with the KMT. Even Mao Zedong, founder of the PRC, wryly acknowledged this: when Kakuei Tanaka, then Prime Minister of Japan, apologised in 1972, he quipped that without the invasion, the communists would still be confined to the hills by the KMT.
Why is the CCP holding the parade?
In June, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the overall arrangements for the commemorations of the 80th anniversary. It listed the following purposes of the parade:
To highlight the pivotal role of the CCP in the war. ‘To demonstrate China’s responsibility to resolutely safeguard the results of victory in the Second World War…and to actively promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind…To unwaveringly uphold world peace.’
To demonstrate the political awareness of the PLA and its obedience to the party (it is important to note that the PLA has always been the party’s army, not a national army).
To showcase the PLA’s progress in modernisation, battle readiness and becoming a world-class force, capable of integrated joint operations, mastering new technologies and forms of warfare, and winning future wars.
To inspire the party, PLA and people of all ethnic groups ‘to unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core…and to…build a strong nation and achieve national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernisation’.
It is interesting to contrast this with an explanation published in the People’s Daily, a CCP-administered newspaper, in 2015. Its considerable candour applies equally to 2025:
‘To demonstrate China’s military strength. Currently, great power competition has reached a critical juncture, and the room for compromise and manoeuvring between major powers is shrinking. This is reflected in specific international events, such as the rift between the US [United States] and Russia, and between Europe and Russia over Ukraine, and the currency wars in which countries refuse to give in…Only with this hard power can we instil fear in our opponents in international competition, secure cooperation from our partners, and steer the strategic landscape in our favour.’
‘To deter Japan and demonstrate to the world China’s unwavering resolve to maintain the postwar world order…In recent years, fuelled by the US’ return to the Asia-Pacific region to contain China, Japan has become increasingly aggressive towards China. Not only has it ‘nationalised’ the Chinese territory of the Diaoyu Islands, it has also attempted to deny history and its aggression against China, and is showing signs of returning to a militaristic path. These actions indicate that Japan is attempting to subvert the post-World War II international order and change its status as a defeated nation.’
‘To showcase the military’s appearance, spirit and weapons to the Chinese people, building confidence and increasing their sense of pride…[which] is particularly crucial during China’s period of deepening institutional reform and economic restructuring.’
‘To demonstrate to corrupt elements that, in addition to the ‘sword handles’ of the Discipline Inspection Commission and the political and legal system, the ‘sword handle’ of the People’s Liberation Army is also firmly in the hands of the Party and the people.’
Perhaps unsurprisingly, this aggressive – and honest – piece has been scrubbed from the internet, as have official records of the 2015 press conference which introduced the parade to domestic and foreign journalists. A decade on, candour is not invited to the parade.
The purposes of this year’s parade encompass all of the above. In sum, Xi wants to reinforce the party’s legitimacy and claims to have ended the so-called ‘century of humiliation’ of foreign semi-colonial behaviour in the PRC; to remind the people that the PLA is the party’s army, which will maintain the CCP in power; to send a message of deterrence to other countries that the PRC is not to be messed with, whether regionally (the East and South China Seas) or globally; and to convince Taiwan that resistance is futile and ‘reunification’ inevitable.
To strengthen the last two intentions, there is consistent emphasis that ‘all the weapons and equipment on display in this parade are domestically produced, active main battle equipment’; and on displaying ‘all types of capabilities, including command and control, reconnaissance and early warning, air and missile defence, firepower, and integrated support.’
Likely domestic reactions
The parade is not the only activity. At the June press conference, Hu Heping, Deputy Minister of the Propaganda Department, emphasised ‘focusing on mass participation’. Other events will commemorate the start of hostilities with Japan in 1931 (18th September), the liberation of Taiwan (25th October), and the Nanjing massacre (13th December). Commemorative medals, stamps and coins will be issued, and a new batch of war sites certified. All regions and departments are to ‘leverage the role of various grassroots cultural platforms, and widely organise themed, diverse and educationally meaningful mass commemorative activities…such as laying wreaths, visiting memorial facilities, paying respects to martyrs’ tombs and holding public memorial services.’ Education, literature, music and online activities are to be pressed into service, and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan ‘compatriots’ will hold a symposium.
Given the system and controls on society, any taking of the temperature of public reaction is impossible to measure, but the likelihood is that the parade will be generally well-received. Most Chinese people will be uplifted by patriotism and nationalist fervour. Inevitably, some will contrast the expense and the pomp with the current economic malaise, unemployment and falling living standards.
Foreign participation and likely reaction
In 2015, approximately 1,000 foreign troops in eleven contingents took part in the parade. This year it seems none are invited, not least perhaps because a Russian contingent would look bad as the full-scale invasion of Ukraine grinds on.
Nor will the list of attending heads of state, ministers and other dignitaries match 2015 in breadth. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a CCP-led economic and security organisation positioned as a counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), concluded its meeting in Tianjin on 1st September, and many leaders of member countries will stay on. But so far, it appears that from the European Union (EU), only Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia, will attend, and no ministers. In 2015, former democratic national leaders such as Sir Tony Blair, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, attended; this year they will not. Even EU ambassadors are said to be boycotting the event, while the Japanese government is reported to have asked European and Asian countries to refrain from attending, in blunt contrast to ten years earlier when Shinzo Abe, former Prime Minister of Japan, kept quiet but stayed away because of ‘his schedule in parliament’.
One leader who was absent in 2015 but will be present this time is Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea. Relations, bad a decade ago, have since strengthened.
Foreign analysts will look for indications that Xi’s control over the military is shaky or firm (this author believes the latter), and similarly for his health. The main take away will – or should – be that however much the CCP declares its peaceful intentions and a ‘community of shared future for mankind’, it is a regime ultimately reliant not on the support of the people, but on military might; and that such might could one day be directed against free and open countries. They should also consider that the PLA is not the only threat, but a more visible one than sub-threshold actions such as interference, cyber warfare, creation of dependencies and more.
Perhaps the last word should go to George Orwell, taken from his essay ‘The Lion and the Unicorn: Socialism and the English Genius’, for whom ‘The goose-step, for instance, is one of the most horrible sights in the world…It is simply an affirmation of naked power’ to be associated with totalitarian states. ‘Why is the goose-step not used in England?…because the people in the street would laugh’. They won’t in Tiananmen.
Charles Parton OBE is Chief Adviser to the China Observatory at the Council on Geostrategy.
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