How can Britain compete with China’s presence in the Global South?
The Tangram | No 04.2025
This is the fourth Tangram from Observing China, where the leading China experts give a diverse range of succinct responses to key questions on the development of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Three quarters of African countries now have their police forces trained by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Across the Indian Ocean, Beijing has significant control over major ports. In Latin America, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has funded a ‘megaport’ in Peru that has the potential to create new trade routes which would bypass North America entirely.
How can the United Kingdom (UK) and its allies cooperate to ensure their presence is maintained in the so-called ‘Global South’ – a term broadly referring to the regions of Africa, Latin America, Oceania and Asia? The responses of five experts consider how Britain can use its strength in energy, aid, agriculture, education and diplomacy to ensure a balance of influence.
Isabel Hilton OBE
Member of the Advisory Board, China Observatory, Council on Geostrategy and Visiting Professor at King’s College London
The UK can compete with the PRC’s influence in the Global South should it so choose. Whether it can compete successfully is another matter. The CCP has spent decades building influence in the Global South as Britain retreated – efforts which began in the 1950s with the claim of solidarity as a fellow victim of Western imperialism and colonialism. In that role, Beijing supported, trained and financed insurgent groups in a range of anticolonial struggles.
In the post-Mao era, the effort shifted to economic influence. Today, the PRC is the biggest trade partner and builder of infrastructure across Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Central Asia. This investment has been accompanied by major investments in soft power.
Since the 2008 Olympics, Beijing has built a global media empire which is charged with ‘telling China’s story well’. CCP media such as Xinhua, China Daily and global broadcasting network China Global Television Network (CGTN) have benefitted from huge state investment, and now supply news services across the Global South. As a recent article puts it: ‘China has sought to erode [the free and open nations’] narrative hegemony by gaining influence in the Global South.’
The PRC’s investment budget has shrunk as the mixed results of the first three years of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) gave way to greater caution. Smaller, more targeted projects and a focus on shifting from funding fossil fuels to green infrastructure are now priorities.
In this unequal contest, the UK is some way from being a serious contender. The PRC has invested heavily in critical sectors such as mining and telecommunications. In 2022, its trade with Africa exceeded $282 billion (£222 billion), while UK-Africa trade was approximately $46 billion (£36 billion). Diplomatically, the PRC leads a suite of minilateral initiatives, including the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which convenes African leaders in regular summits; the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which does the same in Latin America; the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Central Asia; and the ever-expanding BRICS.
The PRC’s relationships in the Global South are not perfect, but an effective challenge would demand robust partnerships – with European neighbours, for example – and a reversal of Britain’s retreat from soft power. Utilising the BBC World Service and the British Council, scholarships for tertiary education, and support in multilateral fora for such issues as the energy transition in the Global South, access to blended finance and the kind of investment which adds value rather than simply extracts, would be a good start.
Associate Fellow, Council on Geostrategy
From an energy and environmental perspective, the UK needs good relationships with key countries in the Global South. Though in reality very far from a homogenous group of countries, there are valuable relationships to be nurtured. And for more fragile countries, especially in critical regions, stabilisation will still be important for Britain’s national interests as an island nation dependent on seaborne trade, even if there are fewer financial resources for it.
Regarding energy, economics and trade, the PRC’s predominance over clean tech and electric supply chains needs to be solved constructively, not ignored. Oil – and certainly gas – provide the UK with diminishing energy security and uncertain affordability. It would be unwise to forgo better technologies just because the PRC has built up a strong position through consistent policy over decades while Britain has not. The PRC’s strength is in processing and manufacturing; it does not have a monopoly over resources, which it generally imports from other countries. Good relations and trading relationships with those countries, often in the Global South, is critical for supply chain diversification, which is in everyone’s interest, but especially the UK’s as an increasingly fossil fuel-poor island.
Stabilisation and climate adaptation will also be critical to mitigate the consequences of climate change, which will hit the most fragile states the hardest. One only needs to look at the causes of the Syrian civil war – which had very real ramifications for Britain’s national security – to see that environmental pressures can cause real conflicts. The cuts to foreign aid apparently have limited impact on climate aid, but that does not mean climate aid itself should not be reformed. Energy access is crucial for some of the poorest communities, but in terms of mitigation of global climate through energy transition, financing the UK’s aid spending barely registers. There should be greater focus on disaster preparedness and state capacity building through more accountable, potentially much speedier mechanisms than the United Nations (UN), such as the Commonwealth, to maximise finance and results for partner countries in the Global South.
James Keeley
Honorary Associate, Institute of Development Studies
His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s approach to the PRC is to challenge, cooperate or compete (the ‘three Cs’) depending on the issue and the context. Research by AidData in 2023 found that Beijing is largely well-regarded in the Global South, and more so than the UK and United States (US) overall. This is a key starting point when thinking about how Britain should engage on PRC-Africa issues. It is a mixed picture, of course, and attitudes to Beijing differ depending on the issue – the UK does better on governance and environment in the AidData research.
For agriculture in Africa, the PRC is valued as a source of training and education, technologies, infrastructure investment – roads connecting farmers to markets are the single best intervention for farmer livelihoods – and as a gradually improving market for exports. Hundreds across Africa are trained each year in the PRC’s agricultural universities and research institutes.
Fish farming is an example of an area where African experts and businesses have learned from the PRC’s development in a sector. In a recent study tour, East African participants wanted to understand Chinese strategies and investments for developing the sector, given the importance of farmed fish as a source of animal protein in their region. The delegation noted how Chinese smallholder production techniques and low-cost equipment, such as pond aerators – which increase oxygen levels and allow for higher stocking rates – could make a practical difference to their production systems.
Climate change is already having devastating impacts across Africa, including on food production. In response, urgent action is needed to support resilient productivity improvements. The UK is helping to build adaptive capacity through climate smart agriculture programmes, such as Propcom+ in Nigeria. This is important, although impact will likely be reduced following the recent aid cuts. Partnership and collaboration – the ‘cooperate’ in Labour’s three Cs – will also be needed. Where possible, British researchers, businesses and practitioners should engage with Chinese agencies on African agricultural climate resilience where cooperation and exchanging ideas can deliver practical benefits. This pragmatic approach is most likely to be appreciated by African partners, with subsequent benefits for relationships with the UK.
Thomas Nurcombe
Senior Researcher, Coalition for Global Prosperity
The so-called ‘Global South’ is the foundation for the strategic objectives of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP. Through the BRI, the PRC has been able to shift global alignments in its favour, with fewer nations calling out Beijing’s human rights abuses. The PRC is also supporting its ambitions for a globally operational military. The Pentagon has indicated around 15 developing nations which Beijing is looking at to host a base for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) – the military maritime fleet of the PRC’s armed forces – so it can have a blue-water navy, including some on Africa’s Atlantic coast.
Ultimately, developing nations will align themselves based on economic self-interest, and for a decade, many have hedged between the free and open nations and the PRC to maximise gains. The only real way to combat the PRC’s influence across the developing world is to provide a better development offer. With the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) alongside cuts to British and European aid budgets, the PRC has been left as the only real player in the game.
The reality is that UK aid alone cannot counter the PRC’s influence in the Global South. Nevertheless, the free and open nations collectively have a powerful asset which can outcompete the PRC and provide a better development offer: the private sector. But if the private sector is to follow, Britain and its allies will have to play a greater role in de-risking investments by improving governance and building better political, economic and legal institutions across the developing world. Weak governance has already driven businesses of the free and open nations out of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, giving the PRC control of up to 70% of its cobalt mines at a devastating human cost. Unfortunately, the UK has slashed aid funding for governance and institution-building programmes, kneecapping the private sector’s utility.
A well-designed and well-funded development budget is a powerful tool in combating the PRC’s influence and unleashing the private sector as a strategic asset. Britain and its Group of Seven (G7) partners should look to use it.
Lukas Fiala
Head of China Foresight at LSE Ideas
Competing with the PRC across the Global South is no easy endeavour. All too often, commentators believe that the UK must respond to PRC initiatives in kind without considering the feasibility and likelihood of success of such recommendations. For instance, as a deficit economy, Britain simply does not have the abundance of capital needed to rival the PRC’s overseas development finance programme delivered through the BRI and, more recently, the Global Development Initiative (GDI).
Instead, the UK should focus on the considerable human capital of its world-class university sector as well as the country’s ensuing convening power to create lasting epistemic networks in support of Britain’s global diplomatic presence in an age of American isolationism. This strategy should include three pillars.
Firstly, HM Government should encourage students from across the Global South to study at British universities to build on existing momentum in the sector. With Whitehall meeting its 2030 international student recruitment target a decade early, the evident appeal of the UK’s university sector should remain part of a broader strategy to enhance Britain’s soft power across key countries and regions.
Secondly, the government should provide more support for academic exchanges between UK research institutes and universities and their counterparts across the Global South. Ensuring equitable access for academics, researchers and journalists from developing countries – especially during the visa process for academic visits – is of critical importance in this regard.
Finally, Britain should provide more professional education opportunities, especially in cooperation with the UK’s world-leading military academies. Building on the deep expertise of British academies, such programs can compete with the PRC’s growing capacity building efforts for armed forces and civil servants across the developing world.
Grace Theodoulou – Policy Fellow, China Observatory
Email: grace@geostrategy.org.uk
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great piece! I wrote about this relationship here, focusing on how UK/US should understand the China-Global South from a health POV https://chinahealthpulse.substack.com/p/no-china-wont-replace-usaid-but-here