Tensions rise in the South China Sea
... a Chinese nuclear submarine sinks, and Russian weapons found to have their origins in Beijing
Observing China is the essential newsletter to understand the UK-PRC relationship, explained in the context of global developments.
Against the backdrop of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrating the 75th anniversary of its founding, Beijing finds itself trying to counter the consequences of its military aggression while promoting itself as a ‘peace-loving nation’ abroad. Welcome back to Observing China.
Following the recent aggressive actions taken by the PRC in the South China Sea against the Philippines, the US, Japan, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand conducted joint military exercises on 28th September. The activity took place in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone with a view to enhance the military interoperability of the five nations.
1.2 Proof of the PRC supplying weapons to Russia for their war in Ukraine, say Western officials
An anonymous source from a nation allied to Ukraine has stated that they have evidence Chinese companies have been supplying Russia with a variety of purpose-built military drones for testing, with the ultimate purpose being for use against Ukraine. This report comes days after a Ukrainian official told reporters that approximately 60% of the foreign parts found in Russian weapons on the battlefield originate in the PRC.
Following this, Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), said that the PRC’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine should ‘have implications.’
The sinking of the PLA’s newest and flashiest nuclear-powered vessel during its construction phase will be a blow to the efforts of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to modernise the country’s underwater warfare capabilities, say US defence officials. Reports believe it sank in either May or June this year, but that the PRC covered it up – the Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC has said that it is not ‘familiar with the situation.’ While the PRC has the largest navy in the world by number of vessels, it remains significantly smaller than the US Navy in terms of displacement, something which Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, has been trying to rectify over the past decade.
1.4 The PRC conducts military manoeuvres in South China Sea
On 27th September, Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State and Wang Yi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, met in New York and discussed the CCP’s ‘dangerous and destabilising actions’ in the South China Sea. A day later, PLA air and naval forces began conducting military drills near Scarborough Shoal, a highly disputed area. The rare military exercises continued over the weekend and into this week.
1.5 Japan’s new prime minister promises a strong defence
On 27th September, Japan elected Shigeru Ishiba as its new prime minister, who has called for an ‘Asian NATO’ – which would include South Korea and several Southeast Asian nations – in order to contain the PRC. Naturally, calls for such a bloc ruffle Beijing’s feathers, but Washington, DC is not too happy either with proposals which could weaken its central position in Asian security networks. Ishiba has also openly declared his support for Taiwan and has hinted that Japan should come to its aid in the event of an invasion by the PLA.
1.6 The CCP lambasts US deployment of missiles in the Philippines
Wang Yi, while meeting his South Korean counterpart on 28th September, said the US deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines – which are capable of striking the PRC – ‘undermines regional peace and stability.’ The deployment follows the CCP’s increased aggression in the South China Sea.
1.7 Switzerland commends CCP-led peace proposal for Ukraine
Switzerland’s Department of Foreign Affairs has now backed a CCP-led peace plan to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, shifting from its initially negative position on the proposal. A spokesperson cited the updated proposal’s reference to the United Nations (UN) Charter as the reason for the change in stance.
1.8 Taiwan detects ‘multiple waves’ of missiles fired from within the PRC
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence said on 27th September that it detected multiple waves of missile launches within the PRC, days after Beijing fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean. Taiwan said it will monitor any further developments and that its military will remain highly vigilant and alert.
1.9 Chinese stocks see biggest single-week increase since 2008
The economic stimulus measures announced by the Chinese central bank on 24th September have had a rapid effect on the country’s stock exchange. Within three days of the announcement, both Chinese and Hong Kong stocks went into positive territory after more than a year of trailing behind the US and other Asian markets.
2.1 Analysis by the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) in Sweden has found that much of the PRC’s commercial fishing fleet is in fact used as a supplementary military force to assert maritime claims and gather intelligence. The report argues that the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), which circulate in areas such as the South China Sea under the pretext of commercial operations, should be held to the same standards as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China Coast Guard (CCG).2.2 An article published by the Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS) in New Zealand analyses why the New Zealand Secret Intelligence Service (NZSIS) recently described Beijing as a ‘complex intelligence challenge.’
2.2 A discussion hosted by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI), a Canadian think tank, explores how the PRC has taken advantage of the NATO and US withdrawal from Afghanistan to expand its influence, strengthening the Taliban regime in the process. Earlier this year, Xi welcomed Asadullah Bilal Karimi, the Taliban-appointed Afghan Ambassador to the PRC. Beijing seeks to include resource-rich Afghanistan in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.
2.3 A piece by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) in Slovakia analyses how the CCP’s growing number of defence and security partnerships with countries in Europe imperils Euro-Atlantic peace. Following Belarus’ accession into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) this summer, Turkey has expressed an interest in joining the Chinese-led economic and security organisation.
2.4 A study by the Cato Institute looks at what Americans think of trade with the PRC, finding that most US citizens, regardless of their party identification, believe that the CCP is practising unfair trade practices with their country.
3.1 British Chancellor plans to visit the PRC to boost trade ties
Whitehall sources confirmed on 1st October that a resumption of the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) after a five-year hiatus is ‘likely’. If confirmed, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, will attend the financial trade services summit which is supposed to occur annually, but has been thwarted since 2019 by the pandemic and rocky political relations.
3.2 Lord Mandelson says Labour will stabilise relations with the PRC
On a recent trip to Hong Kong, Peter Mandelson, close adviser to Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, claims that the new Labour leadership will offer more stable and consistent relations with the PRC. Apparently oblivious to CCP behaviour, Mandelson says a thawing in bilateral relations is needed. He also criticised the previous Conservative government for what he perceived as their neglect of Hong Kong.
3.3 UK issues official cybersecurity advice to individuals following Beijing-linked cyber attacks
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) – a division of Government Communication Headquarters (GCHQ) – issued an official advisory alongside its Five Eyes partners in the US, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand urging individuals and organisations to take caution with their devices. The advisory, issued last month, follows the exposure of a global network of compromised internet-connected devices operated by a PRC-linked company, affecting up to 260,000 devices worldwide.
A point of pride for many Chinese is their cuisine, particularly when compared to British food, which is often described as ‘dry and bland.’ But this is precisely what made ‘Uncle’ Keith famous on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok. Keith would post videos of himself preparing basic lunches, causing such a social media stir that Chinese supermarkets dedicated sections for customers to purchase ingredients to make their own Keith-inspired meal.
4.1 The CCP calls Taiwan independence a ‘dead end’
Following the announcement of Joe Biden, President of the US, on 29th September that America will provide US$567 million (£427 million) in defence support for Taiwan, Lin Jian, Spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of the PRC, fired back that Taiwanese independence is ‘a dead end’. Lin warned that the US will ‘face the consequences of its actions’ and that no amount of arms sales to Taiwan will deter the CCP’s opposition to the island’s independence.
4.2 ‘China is a peace-loving nation’, says Chinese Foreign Minister
Using well-worn tropes at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 79) in New York, Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister, said that ‘unlike some Western countries and the US which are adding oil to the fire for their own interests’, his country is committed to helping achieve world peace. The Philippines, whose aviators were dazzled by lasers fired from a Chinese warship on Friday – the latest in a series of spats between the two countries over competing claims in the South China Sea – might beg to differ.
4.3 The PRC condemns Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon
Asked to comment on the Israeli airstrikes on Beirut which killed Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said that the PRC ‘opposes the infringement on Lebanon’s sovereignty and security…and any action against innocent civilians’, calling on Israel in particular to help de-escalate the situation in the Middle East.
Gray Sergeant, Research Fellow in the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Geostrategy, writes:
On Tuesday I woke to the headline: ‘Xi vows “reunification” with Taiwan on eve of Communist China’s 75th birthday.’ I became even more startled when I soon remembered that it was 1st October and, therefore, the anniversary of the PRC’s founding. The copy editor, and an early start, had got me.
Xi had not announced the invasion of Taiwan nor a blockade, neither had he set out a timetable. The General Secretary spoke of the ‘complete reunification of the motherland’ as being an ‘irreversible trend.’
Given that this is nothing new, it begs the question: is this even noteworthy?
No doubt quotes from successive Chinese Communist leaders can be found which underline the importance Beijing places on Taiwan’s ‘reunification’ and its supposed inevitability. You wouldn’t expect them to say anything less: Ditto, rhetoric about both sides of the strait being connected by blood.
Of course, Xi has tied ‘reunification’ to his dream of the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ and called on the PLA to be ready to take the island by 2027. What he says should be taken seriously, especially as Beijing’s military becomes more capable of successfully acting on such demands. But what is really worth keeping an eye on is how often the CCP’s leader speaks about Taiwan and whether his language changes and begins to convey a sense of urgency.
Since the last newsletter, we have seen more than five countries conduct military drills in the South China Sea. A big week indeed! The topics covered in this week’s Observing China raise questions such as: How will the PRC continue to promote itself as a global peacemaker, when its actions closer to home – and in relation to Russia’s war against Ukraine – tell a different story? How welcoming will the US and allied nations be to a new Japanese prime minister, who, while sharing their concerns on the PRC, wants to take a more robust position in containing his pushy neighbour? Read next week’s newsletter to see how the latest developments unfold…
If you would like to explore any of the Council on Geostrategy’s PRC-focused research papers, click here to visit the China Observatory.