Starmer and Xi, sitting in a tree…
CCP tells US to back off Taiwan; and 45 pro-democracy Hong Kongers jailed
Observing China is the essential newsletter to understand the UK-PRC relationship, explained in the context of global developments.
‘Weak, weak, weak’. That’s what Robert Jenrick, former Conservative leadership contender, called Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, for meeting with Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), at the Group of 20 (G20) Summit in Brazil on 18th November. The first in-person meeting between the two heads of state since 2018, Sir Keir wants to repair relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The new leadership of His Majesty’s (HM) Government asserts that working with Beijing is essential to achieve its ambitious Net Zero targets, and holds the view that by not increasing trade with the PRC, the United Kingdom (UK) would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.
While Jenrick’s words are a little harsh, do they resonate with wider concerns that the new government is being overly optimistic in its vision for a UK-PRC relationship?
Welcome back to Observing China.
The PRC is yet to announce its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – each country’s commitments to tackle climate change as required by the Paris Agreement – at this year’s Conference of the Parties (COP) at the United Nations Climate Convention (UNFCCC).
As climate watchers await Beijing’s announcement with bated breath, Zhao Yingmin, the head of the PRC’s climate delegation at the summit, firmly set the scene for his country’s suspected conservative climate commitments.
Reaffirming the PRC’s problematic self-identification as a developing country under this framework, Zhao rather brazenly asserted: ‘For developed countries climate finance is not charity, not a gift. It is their duty.’
1.2 COP29 leaders agree that the PRC should not be classified as a developing country
In September, Wopke Hoekstra, Commissioner for Climate Action for the European Union (EU), told Bloomberg that if the PRC could go to the Moon, it should be able to pay more for climate action.
One of the most controversial issues at the COP summits in recent years is the classification of developing versus developed countries, which dictates whether a nation should contribute financially to global efforts to tackle climate change.
The defining framework has not been updated since 1992, and leaders at this year’s COP summit say that the guidelines should be expanded to include countries such as the PRC, who although may count as a developed country by certain criteria, have prospered enough since to be able to commit to certain financial contributions.
1.3 Beijing and Washington in a courtship battle over Lima
The day after the inauguration of the PRC’s £2.75 billion megaport project in Peru, Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State to the United States (US), announced that Washington will ‘support the city of Lima in building a new passenger train line’. But commentators point out that this so-called support is an insufficient riposte to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Peru, given that the passenger train line will actually cost Lima US$6.32 million (£5 million) and consists of a retired diesel fleet of trains.
1.4 A dark day for Hong Kong as 45 pro-democracy campaigners imprisoned
Dozens of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong were sentenced to prison on 19th November for ‘subversion’, including the well-known Joshua Wong. The CCP maintains that the trial serves as a necessary warning to anyone who wishes to ‘undermine’ the national security of the PRC.
1.5 Pentagon inks military intelligence deal with the Philippines
The US and the Philippines have signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) which enforces a framework for the bilateral sharing of classified, military information. The deal will facilitate the sale of additional US-made sensitive weapons to the Philippines, and follows Washington’s US$500million in military aid to Manila. Such moves are made in the shadow of increased Chinese military aggression in the South China Sea.
1.6 Dutch foreign minister denounces Beijing’s enabling of Moscow’s war against Ukraine
Caspar Veldkamp, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, has said that ‘all Europeans’ should raise this issue with the PRC, as he did when meeting his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. Veldkamp stated that he and other EU foreign ministers will discuss how the PRC, North Korea and Iran are assisting the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia. While Beijing calls for peace in Ukraine, drone components used by Russia have been found to originate in the PRC.
1.7 Xi Jinping lays out his non-negotiables for a smooth US-PRC relationship
At his last ever meeting with Joe Biden, President of the US, Xi laid out his four ‘red lines’ which Washington must not cross: ‘the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right’. Xi’s words serve as a warning to Donald Trump, President-elect of the US. The ‘path and system’ refers to the rule of the CCP and socialism, while ‘development right’ refers to anything from increasing the capacity of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to the extension of the BRI.
1.8 No handshake or dialogue between Taipei and Beijing in Lima
This year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru saw a frosty encounter not unlike two former romantic partners forced to acknowledge each other at a party for civility’s sake. The representatives of Taiwan and the PRC merely waved at each other at this year’s gathering, which is one of the few international forums where both Taipei and Beijing participate.
2.1 The Council on Foreign Relations publishes a monthly report on the PRC’s foreign policy developments in the Middle East.
2.2 A report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change looks at how HM Government can build up its capabilities of understanding the PRC and formulate a cross-departmental foreign policy strategy.
3.1 Sir Keir requests full bilateral meeting with Xi
Well, this one certainly received a lot of traction in the British media. Sir Keir appears to be trying to keep everyone happy. When he met Xi at the G20 Summit, he reiterated HM Government’s wish to resume economic and financial cooperation next year through Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer. This aspiration will be shared by many in the business community. He also raised the issues of Hong Kong and human rights, but not as fully as various British campaign groups would have liked. Meeting the Secretary General of the CCP in and of itself will not do any harm. But Sir Keir repeatedly pledges ‘consistent and respectful’ relations with the PRC during his premiership, and yet he has already crossed Xi’s ‘red lines’ which will be received as far from respectful (see above 1.7).
It is a strange thing for the leader of one nation to promise another ‘respectful’ relations – since when was Britain ‘disrespectful’ to Xi and the PRC? In 2015, HM Government rolled out the red carpet for Xi’s state visit to the UK. Perhaps Sir Keir was testing the waters. It soon became clear what the CCP sees as ‘disrespectful’: any disagreement. Note how CCP officials ushered British journalists out of the conference room when Sir Keir raised his concerns over the human rights violations of Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong.
3.2 Beijing’s mega-embassy plans for London raised by Sir Keir at G20 meeting
The CCP wants to upgrade its current embassy in London to a ‘mega’ size which would be nearly double the area of its Washington counterpart, and its largest embassy in Europe. The fact that Sir Keir raised this in the G20 Summit is a welcome sign that HM Government will hopefully continue to place this concerning request at the top of its diplomatic agenda.
4.1 Beijing acknowledges significant differences with UK but expresses hope for ‘long-lasting’ relations
The statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from the PRC says that during the meeting with Sir Keir, Xi laid bare the differences he perceived between the UK and the PRC, alongside his hopes for bilateral ties:
习近平强调,中英两国历史文化、价值理念、社会制度虽有差异,但共同利益广泛,双方应该理性客观看待对方的发展,加强战略沟通,增进政治互信,确保中英关系走得稳、走得实、走得远。
[Xi Jinping emphasised that even if the UK and China have differences in their history, values and social systems, they have many common interests. Each side should consider the other’s development rationally and objectively, to strengthen strategic communication, enhance political trust and to ensure that the path of bilateral relations remains stable, practical and long.]
By considering each other’s development ‘rationally’, Xi means focusing solely on the (often short-term) economic benefits and disregarding concerns over a level playing field in trade or human rights.
Gray Sergeant, Research Fellow in the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Geostrategy, writes:
Following the news that Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio would serve in the incoming Trump administration, last week’s Taiwan Take sounded an optimistic note for the future of US-Taiwan relations. It was, albeit a caveated note of optimism; at the end of the day, the president will have the final say.
Alas, the situation may be bleaker than this. As pointed out elsewhere, it is not only Trump who Waltz and Rubio will have to take on regarding Taiwan but also other confidants in the president’s inner circle. Elon Musk (who will head up a new ‘Department for Efficiency’) has been singled out in this regard.
It is reported that Musk has several business interests in the PRC. More controversial still were his comments that Taiwan should become a ‘special administrative zone’ within the PRC, reassuringly adding: ‘and it’s possible…that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.’ No wonder Taipei was looking for an internet backup, which was not Starlink.
Co-leading Trump’s efficiency drive will be Vivek Ramaswamy, who himself unashamedly boasted of abandoning Taiwan once the US was no longer dependent on the island for semiconductors. Tucker Carlson, a Trump acolyte and conservative broadcaster, who was interviewing him, said the ‘plan’ (if you can call it that) made total sense. A few months later. Carlson bemoaned Washington’s concern for Taiwan. Telling his many followers ‘It’s far away, and honestly, who cares?’. He may as well have said it was a cross-strait quarrel between people of whom he knows nothing.
These murmurings may be on the fringes, for now. And it seems unlikely that either Musk or Ramaswamy will have a significant sway over the next administration’s foreign policy given their domestic briefs. But autocrat-admiring Libertarians and old-school isolationists of the Charles Lindbergh variety, who make up the Make America Great Again (MAGA) base, are in the ascendancy. As their strengths grow so must doubts about the Republicans’ long standing support for Taiwan.
While we may not yet have news of Beijing’s NDCs to combat climate change, we see developments taking place in other areas which indicate the CCP’s lack of concern for international norms. Jimmy Lai took the stand on 20th November in Hong Kong which could see him imprisoned for life on national security grounds, alongside sentences he is already serving for his alleged role in the city’s pro-democracy protests in 2019. After witnessing the sentences imposed on 45 Hong Kongers earlier this week, Lai’s prospects for freedom appear to be bleak.
Meanwhile, the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing agreement comprising the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US met for the first time in Japan on 20th November. This signals Japan’s increased role in Indo-Pacific security and clearly reflects the concern of the free and open nations for the fate of peace in the region.
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Grace Theodoulou – Policy Fellow, China Observatory
Email: grace@geostrategy.org.uk
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