Salted ducks and state secrets: Chinese agent infiltrates NY executive chamber
...and Qin Gang resurfaces, Spanish PM pushes back on EU tariffs, Wuhan whistleblower re-detained
Good afternoon from a distinctly autumnal London, and welcome back to Observing China. There’s a lot to cover in this week’s edition, so let’s jump straight in:
1.1 Former aide to New York governor charged with being CCP agent
The arrest of Linda Sun, a former aide to Kathy Hochul, New York Governor, on charges of acting as an illegal agent for the Chinese government, exposes the extent and efficacy of Beijing’s whole-of-society influence and interference network, the United Front. For the United Kingdom (UK), this incident is a reminder of the need to strengthen its counter-intelligence apparatus and legislative framework against sophisticated, evolving threats to its democratic institutions.
1.2 Spanish Prime Minister appeals to EU amidst Chinese EV tariffs deliberation
Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain, has called for the European Union (EU) to reconsider its plan to impose tariffs on Chinese-made Electric Vehicles (EVs). Sanchez’s appeal, made during a four-day visit to the PRC, highlights Spain’s concern over potential fallout from a trade war, particularly given the country’s role as largest exporter of pork into China. His comments reflect growing divisions within the bloc on how to address competition from Chinese EVs.
1.3 Qin Gang resurfaces in low-level publishing job after disappearing in 2023
Qin Gang, former Chinese foreign minister and notorious ‘wolf warrior’ diplomat – once a rising star in the PRC’s diplomatic ranks who disappeared under mysterious circumstances in 2023 – has been sighted again and reportedly reassigned to a minor publishing role in a state-owned publishing house. While effectively ending his career, this ‘soft landing’ suggests a calculated move by the CCP to minimise potential damage from a former insider in the upper echelons of Beijing’s leadership.
1.4 Covid-19 reporting citizen activist Zhang Zhan re-detained
Zhang Zhan, a former lawyer who provided on-the-ground reporting from Wuhan during the initial Covid-19 outbreak, has been re-detained after four years in prison. Zhang’s work was instrumental in providing an accurate account of the pandemic’s early stages. Her work offered for scared Chinese citizens a glimpse into the reality of the pandemic unfolding in Wuhan, when official narratives were tightly controlled and independent voices were being silenced.
1.5 Russia and PRC conduct joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan
On 10th September, the Russian Pacific Fleet and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) began naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, aimed at safeguarding maritime security and communications. These drills, part of the larger ‘Ocean 2024’ exercises, continue the deepening military partnership between the two nations in opposition to perceived Western hegemony.
1.6 Beijing retaliates to Canadian EV tariffs, probes canola
Beijing has launched a probe into Canadian canola imports, possibly leading to tariffs on a key Canadian export, in response to Ottawa’s new tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, steel, and aluminium. As Canada seeks to curb the influence of subsidised Chinese industries and ‘dumping’ practices, the PRC’s retaliatory probe serves as a reminder of Beijing’s willingness to use economic coercion against protectionist policies.
1.7 PRC companies adapt to Western sanctions through 'backdoor' approach
Chinese companies are increasingly exploiting neutral jurisdictions such as Singapore, Vietnam, Ireland and Mexico to circumvent major economies’ trade restrictions and maintain access to lucrative United States (US) and EU markets. Shein, headquartered in Singapore, exemplifies this ‘backdoor’ strategy (also dubbed Singapore-washing). The increasingly blurry lines between corporate independence and state interests in the PRC raise broader questions about the capacity of regulatory frameworks in advanced economies to address indirect Chinese investments.
1.8 First Taiwanese jailed under separatism charges
The PRC sentenced Yang Chih-yuan, a Taiwanese activist, to nine years in prison for advocating Taiwan’s independence, marking the first time a Taiwanese individual has been convicted on separatism charges. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has warned citizens about the risks of travelling to China.
1.9 The opaque rise of SHEIN and its domination of the US market
The meteoric expansion of Shein, a Chinese fast-fashion business, underscores the PRC’s ability to dominate global industries while exploiting loopholes in US trade regulations. As a Shein IPO listing is considered in the UK, one hopes that Shein’s opaque operations, potential human rights violations, Intellectual Property (IP) theft and ethics of its model of consumerism are spurring regulators to debate the risks of normalising such practices – particularly given the long-term ramifications for global labour rights and the integrity of international trade.
2.1 The China Observatory at Council on Geostrategy has published a two-part series on the PRC’s posture in the South China Sea (SCS). The first, by Bill Hayton, assesses the historical and legal basis of the PRC’s territorial claims in the SCS, while the second, by Charles Parton, details current regional tensions and the possibility of conflict.
2.2 The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has outlined the evolution in the PRC’s approach to Africa amidst last week’s Forum On China-Africa Cooperation summit. Economic adjustments are reflected in a shift from large infrastructure loans to more private investments in critical minerals and green tech, while Beijing’s diplomatic initiatives aim to secure African backing for Beijing’s global ambitions in multilateral settings such as the United Nations.
2.3 UK China Transparency has published a third-party report outlining the connections between Chinese genomics company BGI Genomics with UK academic institutions, and raises concerns over the potential misuse of sensitive genetic data by the Chinese government.
2.4 According to a report released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Chinese AI ecosystem has strengthened focus on AI safety towards active engagement in international dialogues and domestic policy discussions on frontier AI risks. The change is driven by influential scientists and academics, culminating in a high-level CPP directive to establish AI safety supervision systems.
2.5 The Lowy Institute has highlighted how the PRC’s expanding influence in Southeast Asia is paradoxically benefiting Australia, as countries including Malaysia and Indonesia seek closer ties with Canberra amid growing concerns about Beijing’s strategic aims.
2.6 According to an article published by the Lowy Institute, the PRC is increasingly pressuring Myanmar’s Tatmadaw due to concerns over border stability and the advancement of Belt and Road projects. Beijing has taken a pragmatic stance, backing ethnic armed organisations and pushing for elections to restore order, marking a shift away from support for Myanmar’s military regime in favour of its strategic goals.
3.1 Media Freedom Coalition issues statement on Stand News verdict
The Media Freedom Coalition issued a statement expressing grave concern over the recent guilty verdicts against two former editors of Stand News, Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam, in Hong Kong. The Coalition emphasised that journalism is not a crime and should not be prosecuted under the guise of national security. They called on both Hong Kong and Chinese authorities to adhere to their international human rights obligations, including those enshrined in the Basic Law, China’s 2024 Universal Periodic Review, and Hong Kong’s 2022 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights review.
The statement, signed by over 20 countries including the UK, US, and several European nations, demonstrates growing global concern about the erosion of democratic principles in Hong Kong and the negative impact on reputation as a bastion of press freedom in Asia.
3.2 Suella Braverman writes Labour is surrendering to China
Suella Braverman, former Home Secretary and currently MP for Fareham and Waterlooville, warns that Labour’s early decisions regarding the PRC signify a troubling shift towards appeasement, accusing the government of backsliding on key national security commitments. She highlights Labour’s postponement of vital transparency measures including the Foreign Influence and Registration Scheme and the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act 2023; its retreat on holding Beijing accountable for human rights violations, and the growing dependence on Chinese-owned industries, calling these actions a dereliction of the government’s duty to protect the UK.
3.3 UK Pavilion third largest at SEMICON Taiwan
Last week, a delegation of 21 British businesses led by Dr Dave Smith, the UK’s National Technology Advisor, participated in SEMICON Taiwan. The UK Pavilion was the third largest at the event, and marked British efforts to strengthen collaboration with Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor industry.
3.4 Court ruling compels UK prosecutors to reassess supply chain-related investigations
The Court of Appeal has ruled that the National Crime Agency (NCA) must reconsider investigating companies linked to Xinjiang cotton imports, raising the stakes for businesses regarding money laundering and human rights compliance in their supply chains.
3.5 Meet Yuan Yang
Forbes has published an interview with Yuan Yang (杨缘), Labour MP for Earley and Woodley and the second-ever British-Chinese member to be elected to the House of Commons.
3.6 Oxford Nanopore prepares to sue BGI over IP theft
Oxford Nanopore is preparing to sue BGI Genomics for allegedly stealing trade secrets related to nanopore-based sequencing technology. The British company claims that BGI breached a contract from a 2014 research project, and used its proprietary technology to develop a competing product.
4.1 On the 9th September, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, commemorated the ‘China-DPRK Friendship year’, pointing out that:
习近平指出,76年来,在朝鲜劳动党领导下,朝鲜人民团结一心,推动国家各项事业蓬勃发展。近年来,总书记同志带领朝鲜党和人民,深入贯彻落实朝党八大及历次全会精神,取得一系列建设和发展成就。相信在以总书记同志为首的朝鲜劳动党领导下,朝鲜人民一定能够在推进朝鲜式社会主义事业的征程中不断夺取新的更大胜利。
习近平强调,中朝两国山水相连,传统友谊历久弥坚。今年是中朝建交75周年暨“中朝友好年”。新时期新形势下,中方将继续从战略高度和长远角度看待中朝关系,愿同朝方深化战略沟通,加强协调合作,共同维护好、巩固好、发展好中朝传统友好合作关系,共同推进社会主义事业,为两国人民带来更多福祉,为促进地区和世界的和平稳定与发展繁荣作出更大贡献。
Over the past 76 years, under the leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the people of North Korea have united as one, driving the country’s various undertakings to flourish. In recent years, General Secretary Kim Jong-un has led the party and the people of North Korea in thoroughly implementing the spirit of the Eighth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea and its plenary sessions, achieving a series of accomplishments in national development and construction. Xi expressed confidence that, under the leadership of General Secretary Kim Jong-un and the Workers' Party of Korea, the people of North Korea will continue to secure even greater victories in advancing their unique form of socialism.
Xi Jinping emphasised that China and North Korea are joined by mountains and rivers, and their traditional friendship has grown stronger over time. This year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea, as well as the ‘Year of China-North Korea Friendship.’ In the new era and new circumstances, China will continue to view its relationship with North Korea from a strategic and long-term perspective. China is willing to deepen strategic communication with North Korea, enhance coordination and cooperation, and jointly maintain, consolidate, and develop the traditional friendly cooperative relationship between the two countries. Together, they will advance the socialist cause, bring greater benefits to both peoples, and make further contributions to regional and global peace, stability, and development.
Gray Sergeant, Research Fellow on the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Geostrategy, writes from LA, California:
It is easy to become accustomed to ‘new normals’, things which would have been newsworthy a few years ago but no longer are. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s flights into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) have or are becoming that: unremarkable. Crossings of the strait’s median line are certainly old hat.
I, I admit, have become too accustomed to reports of a handful, a dozen or so Chinese aircraft flying around Taiwan. So, sometimes, it is useful to step back from the daily reports and look at the big picture. Here, we see some notable developments.
The first is the number of aircraft. This summer, Chinese aircraft have flown into the ADIZ in their hundreds each month, numbers much greater than in previous years. Moreover, according to Bloomberg, since President Lai’s inauguration, ‘ADIZ or centreline crossings have risen to an average of 18.7 a day, up from 7.5’.
The second is location. In 2024, Taiwan’s eastern flank, it is argued, is ‘becoming a new area for focus by the PLA and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’. As of 31st August 2024, 140 fixed-wing aircraft have been tracked east of Taiwan, an area which has traditionally been seen as safer in the event of a PLA attack, owing to the natural barrier provided by the mountain range running down the island.
Should we be concerned? Yes. Incursions into the ADIZ test Taiwan’s significantly smaller military and give the PLA ample practice. But is this not mostly political signalling from a Communist Party in China, which is bereft of better ideas?
To return to the beginning, one of the most pernicious aspects of these steady increases is that these military manoeuvres become normalised and thus accepted. What will it take for the world to notice reports of fighter jets creeping into the 24nm contiguous zone or pushing towards Penghu?
Thank you for reading everyone! Please check back in next Tuesday for more PRC-focused news and views. If you enjoy this newsletter, please consider sharing it with your colleagues/friends too ~
Liddy
(reach me at: elizabeth@geostrategy.org.uk)
If you would like to explore any of the Council on Geostrategy’s PRC-focused research papers, click here to visit the China Observatory.