Prince Andrew on Father Christmas’ naughty list for befriending alleged Chinese spy
EU sanctions PRC entities assisting in Ukraine invasion; Beijing and Washington sign science agreement
Observing China is the essential newsletter to understand the UK-PRC relationship, explained in the context of global developments.
The mention of Prince Andrew alongside an alleged spy and member of an information-gathering arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), may be the reason that His Majesty’s (HM) Government has officially delayed the ‘China audit’.
HM Government’s review of its own relations with Beijing is now due to be released in spring next year, instead of the initial date which was set to coincide with the trip of Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of Exchequer, to the PRC next month for the resumption of the Economic and Financial Dialogue between the respective countries.
Yang Tengbo, the alleged spy from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is said to have described himself as an overseas representative of the United Front Work Department (UFWD). Despite its rather dull name, the UFWD has been instrumental in skewing the narratives of influential institutions and individuals abroad to suit the CCP’s interests.
As pointed out in LBC, the range of those surveilled by the UFWD spans from students to royalty.
Welcome back to Observing China. Our newsletter is a day early this week, so you can digest it before too many mince pies.
The focus of the European Commission’s 15th sanctions package against Russia is to constrict its shadow fleet. This sanctions package is the first to include Chinese individuals and entities found to be circumventing EU sanctions and supplying sensitive drone and microelectronic components to the Russian military machine.
1.2 The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) releases a ‘kill list’ for United States (US) naval targets
The PLA’s electronic warfare unit has published a list of targets for a coordinated attack against US carrier strike groups. The list names the specific military radars, sensors and communications systems that the PLA should target in the event of a coordinated attack. A PRC defence journal, aiming to encourage civilian institutions and companies to contribute to military research and weapon production, published the list.
1.3 Facial recognition police robots deployed on the streets of the PRC
Developed by a robotics company based in Shenzhen, the spherical robots were originally designed to replace humans in inhospitable environments such as the Moon or on Mars. But now these autonomous robots patrol the streets of the PRC, armed with tear gas and performing the functions of policemen. The robots use facial recognition to identify, chase and immobilise suspected criminals.
Experts attribute the coordinated cyberattacks on US telecommunications firms to CCP-endorsed Salt Typhoon, a group of hackers who infiltrated the phone calls of US presidential candidates. Investigations show that this group has also targeted government organisations in Israel and hacked into multiple hotel systems in the United Kingdom (UK).
1.5 US federal court rejects TikTok’s request to freeze law requiring it to sell or be banned
ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, is required to sell TikTok or be banned in the US. The deadline is the 19th January 2025, the eve of the inauguration of Donald Trump, President-elect of the US. ByteDance sought to freeze this law made on national security grounds. But now that the Federal Court has rejected it, the case may be escalated to the Supreme Court. In the UK, TikTok is banned on devices used within HM Government premises.
1.6 Beijing and Washington sign new science and technology agreement
The agreement is based on its predecessor, which had been in effect since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979 and renewed every five years. The latest pact is narrower in scope, deliberately excluding cooperation on ‘critical and emerging technologies’, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence. This new agreement will merely cover collaboration on basic science projects between government departments and agencies.
2.1 This piece by the Council on Foreign Relations offers a digestible breakdown of the so-called ‘no limits’ partnership between the PRC and Russia, as declared by their respective leaders. The article includes charts of bilateral trade statistics and military cooperation.
2.2 An insight by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) makes the case that the increased reduction of direct flights to the PRC by European airlines allows Chinese airlines to dominate the market instead, placing European countries at an economic and geopolitical disadvantage.
3.1 Web of alleged Chinese spy’s commercial links to the UK begin to unravel
More information about the business dealings of Yang Tengbo, the businessman from the PRC who has been accused by HM Government of engaging in ‘covert and deceptive activity’ on behalf of the CCP, are being revealed. Yang Tengbo is still listed as the director of Hampton Group International, a business registered in London that signed an agreement with Gordonstoun School (alma mater of Prince Andrew and His Royal Highness King Charles) to establish up to five affiliated campuses in the PRC and Hong Kong.
Gordonstoun has since severed ties with Hampton Group International and claimed that Prince Andrew was never involved in the brokering of this deal, although The Daily Telegraph reported that both PRC state media and the group itself had previously confirmed the Duke of York’s involvement.
Sources say Prince Andrew first met Yang Tengbo in 2012 through ‘official channels’. For some time, it has been clear that the Chinese intelligence apparatus executes decades-long projects and casts a ‘whole-of-state approach’ from students to world-famous royals – all while being happy to bide its time as the fruit of its labour grows.
3.2 Second alleged Chinese spy loses legal battle in London
Christine Lee, a prominent lawyer, sued the Security Service (MI5) in 2022 when it alerted Members of Parliament (MPs) that she was likely to be a PRC espionage agent. But a judgement on 16th December ruled that the Security Service was correct to warn politicians about her intentions. Lee donated £500,000 to an MP through her law firm and the Security Services feared she was ‘grooming’ prospective parliamentary candidates in order to favour Beijing’s interests in British politics. It is reported that Lee previously advised many Chinese Government organs, including the Chinese Embassy in London, the UFWD’s Overseas Chinese Affairs Office and the All-China Federation of Returned Overseas Chinese.
4.1 Qiushi Theory, the CCP’s flagship policy journal, has reported that Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, is due to publish an article explaining how the party will reform itself in the face of ‘inevitable conflicts and problems within the party’. As such, we can expect to see a further tightening of party control and a further culture of scrutiny within it. One of the primary aims of Xi’s commitment for ‘self-reform’ within the party is to fight the corruption that plagues it, particularly in its departments focused on military development. As we have seen, the PRC is expanding its military at an unprecedented pace alongside its territorial claims, so for Xi, ensuring compliance in this government function is of paramount importance.
4.2 A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy to the UK has called British MPs ‘shameless’ and ‘arrogant’ for denouncing the recently reported links between Prince Andrew and Yang Tengbo, alleged spy for the PRC. In typical CCP fashion, British public figures have been accused of ‘trouble-making’ and holding ‘anti-China’ views for commenting on clearly very concerning (and rather strong) evidence. The vitriolic statement claims MPs have ‘fully revealed their twisted mentality towards China’. These strong words will test the UK-PRC relationship, as they openly point to the long-held propaganda promulgated by Beijing that the concerns voiced by HM Government in recent years over human rights abuses and espionage attempts are part of a wider effort to poison the UK against the PRC.
Gray Sergeant, Research Fellow in the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Geostrategy, writes:
In January, I speculated on how cross-strait relations might unfold in 2024. The piece offered few firm predictions – except that Beijing’s ‘grey zone’ warfare would continue if Lai Ching-te, President of Taiwan, won the presidency (not exactly going out on a limb there).
As the year draws to an end, it might be worth reflecting on developments. Has anything significantly changed over the past 12 months?
Lai did indeed win the election. So far, he has largely followed in his predecessor’s cautious footsteps. There was some quibbling about the choice of words in his inauguration speech (the use of ‘China’ rather than the geographically vague ‘other side of the strait’). His National Day address, however, was regarded as more restrained – not that this stopped Beijing from responding with military exercises.
Meanwhile, the American public plucked for Trump. Before and after the election, the incoming president remained ambiguous about his response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan (in marked contrast to the clarity shown by Joe Biden, President of the US). While his call for Taipei to pay Washington for its protection sows further doubts about US dependability, a few key cabinet picks have provided reassurance.
Lastly, in the election-free PRC, Xi has remained in power (no surprises there!). Nothing the General Secretary has said indicates a newly found sense of urgency regarding Taiwan. Indeed, internal developments, not least the PRC’s economic woes, make life difficult enough for the CCP without throwing in a cross-strait crisis. And while another high-profile defence sacking suggests that Xi is anxious to get his military fighting fit, it also likely shows that, for now, he does not think they are there yet.
This is a long way of saying nothing that fundamental has changed and that neither Beijing nor Taipei appears to be on the verge of decisively altering disrupting the status quo. It is Trump, the ever unpredictable Trump, who may surprise us in 2025. But this is not confined to matters concerning the Taiwan Strait…
The allegations against Yang Tengbo and his reported association with Prince Andrew will be percolating in the minds of British politicians. Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, has conceded that he is ‘concerned about the challenge that China poses’ following the allegations of espionage. However, he stands by his leadership’s approach of engaging with Beijing despite concerns over security and human rights issues.
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, has admitted that the Yang Tengbo incident has not ‘occurred in a vacuum’.
MPs are now also pressuring ministers to declare the PRC a national security threat by placing it on the ‘enhanced tier’ of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme. The previous Conservative government launched this scheme, which aims to scrutinise the intentions of foreign businesses establishing operations in the UK, in order to eliminate potential threats to national security.
So, how might these allegations affect HM Government’s narrative and PRC strategy in the new year?
Wait for our first newsletter of 2025 to find out.
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Grace Theodoulou – Policy Fellow, China Observatory
Email: grace@geostrategy.org.uk
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