Trump's Taiwan slam
...and socialist AI, Selina Cheng fired from WSJ, Germany sort-of ditches Huawei
Hello everyone and greetings from a Westminster significantly less clogged by anti-monarchists today. The King has spoken and is safely ensconced back in the Palace. More Third Plenum news in the People’s Republic of China (PRC): the Third Plenum finishes today, on the 18th July. Here’s a little rundown of what’s next. Shortly after the meeting concludes, a communiqué will be released, summarising the key points and decisions made. After this, a more detailed read-out should follow in the next few days, outlining the specific reforms, policies, and plans agreed - essentially a roadmap for the country’s economic and political direction. Then, perhaps Xi himself will expound upon key points in explanatory notes.
In other news, Trump’s dodging bullets, but is he dodging US commitments to Taiwan? Read below.
1.1 Xi instructs CCP to show unwavering faith in China's reform
General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping has urged the Communist Party to maintain ‘unwavering faith and commitment’ to the PRC’s path towards socialist modernisation. The Third Plenum is expected to solidify the PRC’s development plans for the next five to ten years, emphasising technological innovation and reinforcements to party leadership.
1.2 Chinese censors to ensure socialist AI
Chinese authorities are auditing AI models from tech companies such as ByteDance and Alibaba to ensure their large language models conform to socialist values and that the PRC’s censorship regime extends over new technologies. This involves detailed audits of AI responses to sensitive questions, particularly those regarding political topics and General Secretary Xi himself, who does not wish to be mocked or undermined by LLMs.
1.3 Chair of Hong Kong Journalists Association fired from WSJ
On 17th July, the Wall Street Journal dismissed Selina Cheng, the newly elected chair of the Hong Kong Journalists Association, allegedly due to her role in the press union. Cheng refused to step down from her union position as requested by her employer. A leading American newspaper’s decision to yield to Hong Kong’s political pressures and abandon core journalistic principles for the sake of operational security indicates a troubling erosion of media integrity.
1.4 State media push back on 'garbage time of history' narrative of economic decline
The phrase ‘garbage time of history’ (历史的垃圾时间) has gone viral on Chinese social media, reflecting economic pessimism. A popular ‘misery ranking’ lists eight hardships, including unemployment and debt. The CCP has responded by censoring related content and publishing rebuttals in state media. Social media users have been warned against criticising the economy online, as officials worry about its impact on public sentiment. This is not ‘positive energy’ stuff, after all.
1.5 Germany to remove Huawei from telecoms network: but it's half-baked
On 10th July, Berlin announced the decision to phase out Chinese equipment makers Huawei and ZTE from German telecom networks – from its core network by the end of 2026, and its Radio Access Network (RAN) by the end of 2029. Critics have noted that the restrictions only target ‘critical management systems’ within the RAN, potentially allowing Huawei to retain a significant market share. Sort of like breaking up with your manipulative ex - but you’re still chatting, and s/he still has your favourite hoodie.
1.6 Philippines and PRC establish new communication lines to ease SCS tension
The Philippines and the PRC have agreed to establish new communication channels to better manage maritime disputes in the South China Sea, following clashes over competing claims to the Second Thomas Shoal. The new arrangement includes three communication channels: one for designated representatives of their leaders, another for their respective foreign ministries, and a third involving their coast guards.
1.7 NATO discuss reclaiming Chinese owned infrastructure
NATO is contemplating taking control of Chinese-owned infrastructure in Europe in the event of an expanded conflict with Russia, fearing these assets could be used to aid Moscow. This development highlights NATO’s increasing focus on the challenges Beijing poses to Euro-Atlantic security.
1.8 Chinese cyber threat evolving: UK cyber head
Head of National Cyber Security Centre Felicity Oswald discussed the cybersecurity threats emanating from the PRC, noting sophisticated and evolving cyber tactics which should ‘worry us all.’ Oswald emphasised the needs for a skilled cybersecurity workforce and maintaining transparency with the public.
2.1 An article by The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change explains the Third Plenum is unlikely to bring significant shifts in economic policy but will focus on political and structural changes, reaffirming Xi’s control and strategic direction. Efforts to deepen reforms, enhance technological innovation, and ensure long-term security will highlight Xi’s commitment to maintaining the PRC’s stability and growth through a centralised and disciplined political framework.
2.2 The PRC has launched its first photonic micro-chip production line at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Photonic chips, which use photons instead of electrons for data transmission and processing, offer greater speed, energy efficiency, and bandwidth than electronic chips. This could mark a milestone in Xi’s aims of revolutionising semiconductor chip technology; accelerating technological innovation and dodging US semiconductor restrictions. Either way, it's an emerging sector which should be watched closely.
3.1 On 15th July, the House of Commons Library published a Research briefing; ‘UK-China relations: Recent developments.’ This provides a detailed examination of bilateral relations over the past few years, outlining the swing from the ‘Golden Era’ to current tensions in July 2024. It covers government policies, human rights concerns, national security issues, economic ties, and the international context.
3.2 The new Labour trade secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, has indicated that the UK is not planning to impose tough tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports, marking a departure from US’ policy, and the EU’s recent decision to do so. Reynolds has emphasised that while he remains ‘vigilant’ about potential issues, any decision must be appropriate for the UK’s export-orientated car industry.
4.1 The CCP has afforded a very restrained response to the attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump last weekend:
China is following the shooting incident at the campaign rally of former US President Donald Trump. President Xi Jinping has expressed sympathies to former President Trump.
4.2 On July 12th, US President Biden signed ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ into law. The Act aims to strengthen US policy on Tibet and promote dialogue between China and Tibetan representatives. The Act defines Tibet to include areas outside the Tibet Autonomous Region, establishes objectives for the US Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues to counter disinformation about Tibet, and states that Tibet’s legal status remains to be determined under international law. Biden emphasised that: ‘The Act does not change longstanding bipartisan United States policy to recognise the Tibet Autonomous Region and other Tibetan areas of China as part of the People's Republic of China.’ A spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded:
‘The so-called ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ violates the US government’s long-held position and commitments and the basic norms governing international relations, grossly interferes in China’s domestic affairs, undermines China’s interests, and sends a severely wrong signal to the ‘Tibet independence’ forces. China firmly opposes it and has protested to the US side.’
The spokesperson further urged the US to honour its commitments of recognising Tibet as part of China and not supporting Tibetan independence, warning that China would take ‘resolute measures’ to defend its interests if the US ‘continues down the wrong path’ and implements the Act.
Gray Sergeant, Research Fellow on the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Geostrategy, writes:
‘I know the [Taiwanese] people very well, respect them greatly’ former President Donald Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. But the former president went on to say, ‘they did take about 100% of our chip business’ and ‘I think, Taiwan should pay us for defence’.
Cue concerns about American steadfastness. And these are not ungrounded. A less transactional leader in the White House would, no doubt, be more reassuring for many US’ partners. Yet Trump’s remarks do not necessarily mean abandonment. They should, too, be taken with a pinch of salt.
For one thing, Taiwan’s defence spending has significantly increased in recent years. From 2019 to 2023 it rose from 2% of GDP to 2.5% - the country can hardly be accused of free riding. For another, this spending includes the purchase of American weapons. Recent estimates value backlogged US arms sales to Taiwan alone at $19 billion. So much for ‘Taiwan doesn’t give us anything’.
Finally, the people around the president matter too. If Trump wins in November, we will have to watch who he selects for top foreign and defence jobs. While his latest pick, JD Vance, does not bode well for Ukraine, the Republican vice-presidential nominee has warned: ‘the thing that we need to prevent more than anything is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.’
Small comforts no doubt. Worse still is it doesn’t matter how you or I feel. What really matters is the signal Trump’s recent remarks send to the man in Zhongnanhai.
On that slightly sobering note, have a great weekend everyone - and I hope to see you checking back in next week!
- Liddy
If you would like to explore any of the Council on Geostrategy’s PRC-focused research papers, click here to visit the China Observatory.
The innovation and production of photonic micro-chips will be very interesting to see develop. With the constant and increasing reliance on technologies, if another world reliance on Chinese exports through these mirco-chips can be created, it will be interesting to see how this may influence worldwide foreign policy in the long-term future.