Chinese-Belarusian drills during NATO summit
..and NATO calls out China, Australia accuses PRC of cyber hack, Chinese plastics surge rising, it's coming home
Hello everyone, today marks the conclusion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit… Last night brought historic news not only for England football fans but with the NATO Washington Summit Declaration: the alliance has taken a decisive stance against the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for its ‘systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security’, highlighting its role in supporting Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the time of writing, the Chinese side is yet to respond. Personally, I believe we’re likely to see Beijing launch into a diplomatic pantomime of deflection, defensiveness and denial. I’m positive that Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, is cooking up some spicy insults to fling back at NATO as I write. Anyway, given that the new Labour government has promised a ‘NATO first’ defence strategy, the alliance’s new stance will surely hold significant implications for the United Kingdom’s (UK) ‘China policy.’ I await it with bated breath.
1.1 China and Belarus conduct military drills next to NATO border during NATO summit
During NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, the PRC and Belarus began military exercises near Belarus’s border with Poland. This reflects deepened Beijing-Minsk military ties following Belarus’s recent accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The PRC’s alignment with Belarus, a crucial ally to the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine, follows Vladimir Putin’s declaration of a ‘golden era’ in China-Russia relations.
1.2 NATO Declaration names China a ‘decisive enabler’ in Russia’s war
1.2 On 10th July, NATO labelled the PRC a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Washington Summit Declaration has called on Beijing to ‘cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort. This includes the transfer of dual-use materials, such as weapons components, equipment, and raw materials that serve as inputs for Russia’s defence sector.’ The communiqué highlighted NATO’s commitment to defending its members against all threats, including cyber and grey zone threats posed by the PRC.
1.3 Finland: only China can end the war in Ukraine
Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, claimed last week that Beijing’s influence over Moscow is so great that Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), could end the war in Ukraine with a single phone call. This might be overegging the pudding a little, but it is right to emphasise how much CCP support bolsters Russia’s war effort. It is in Beijing’s interests for Russia not to lose.
1.4 Australia accuses PRC of cyber hack
The Australian Cyber Security Centre identified Chinese state-backed APT40 hackers as responsible for stealing credentials from Australian networks in 2022. The report was supported by the UK, the United States (US), Canada, New Zealand, Germany, South Korea and Japan.
1.5 Chinese plastics overcapacity threatens global markets
The PRC’s surge in plastics production is creating an oversupply, prompting cheap exports which could exacerbate trade tensions globally. This expansion, despite weak domestic demand, mirrors previous oversupply challenges with steel and solar panels.
1.6 China policy needs to change under Labour
Labour’s promised ‘China audit’ offers a chance to discreetly reassess the PRC’s economic and geopolitical strategy post-Covid and develop a new, tough, yet low-key approach which accepts the inherent instability in the London-Beijing relationship. This strategy should address the government’s current deficit in China expertise, and be coordinated through a dedicated body.
1.7 Xi meets Orban, urges world powers to facilitate Russia-Ukraine dialogue
On 8th July 2024, Viktor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary, met Xi in Beijing to discuss the possibility of peace in Ukraine. Xi called for global leaders to ‘project positive energy rather than negative energy’, stating this was the only means to a ceasefire. The PRC upgraded its ties with Hungary to an ‘all-weather, comprehensive strategic partnership.’
2.1 Mercator Institute for China Studies, Chatham House and The German Marshall Fund of the United States have published a report on the PRC-Russia alignment, which has strengthened as the PRC aids Russia in circumventing free and open countries’ sanctions and bolstering its military-industrial capacity through provision of critical dual-use goods. The report suggests how transatlantic partners can respond.
2.2 RAND has published an article outlining the need for NATO to develop a coordinated approach to counteract the strategic advantages the PRC and Russia have developed in supply chains of critical raw minerals.
3.1 On 10th July, Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, made his first remarks about the PRC since his inauguration. Starmer told reporters at the NATO summit that HM Government was prepared to be ‘robust’ with the PRC if Labour’s promised ‘China audit’ deemed it necessary – and cooperate, where necessary.
3.2 On 10th July, Catherine West, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) spoke at the Great Britain-China Centre 50th Anniversary Celebration, held in the FCDO. West spoke of the importance of increased engagement with the PRC, especially in engagement in trade; of raising ‘occasional concerns about values’, collaboration on issues such as climate change and environmental degradation, supporting British businesses in the PRC, and the need to ‘pull together in difficult and uncertain times.’
4.1 On Tuesday 9th July, The Global Times described NATO as ‘outwardly tough but inwardly brittle’ as a result of ‘increasing internal divisions on global issues’ and ideological splits caused by the US presidential election and the populist right in Europe. The article goes on to criticise NATO’s increasing attention towards the Indo-Pacific. Lin Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, stated:
We firmly reject NATO’s vilification and blame-shifting against China. NATO should not use China to justify its insertion into the Asia-Pacific and attempt to disrupt regional dynamics…We urge NATO to form the right perception of China, get rid of its Cold War mentality and zero-sum approach, stop scaremongering on security and making imaginary enemies, stop forming exclusive clubs in the name of collective defence, and play a constructive role for global peace, stability and development.
4.2 The People’s Daily reported on talks held between Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister, and Maksim Ryzhenkov, Foreign Minister of Belarus, in Beijing on 8th July. Wang stated that:
China is willing to work with Belarus to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state and promote the continuous deepening and solidification of the China-Belarus all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership.’
So, Hungary and Belarus now wear matching friendship bracelets.
Gray Sergeant, Research Fellow on the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Geostrategy, writes:
With increasing concerns about Beijing’s ambitions vis-a-vis Taiwan, many in London and allied capitals are asking what they could do if a cross-strait conflict occurred, and if they would prevail. Contingency planning is afoot.
Yet such preparations are only effective if Taiwan is itself committed to resisting aggression. While initial resolve may be strong, sustaining it will require more than just political leadership. As an island nation, Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to efforts aimed at severing critical supplies, including energy, which would significantly drain not only essential resources but, over time, morale.
In recognition of Beijing’s increasingly aggressive stance, Taiwan has developed plans to improve civil defence which are to be submitted for presidential approval today. This includes steps to build up food and energy stockpiles and emergency medical capacity. One option involves mobilising the country’s vast network of 24-hour convenience stores to distribute supplies.
Such thinking is welcome — but is it enough? One recent Taiwanese war game concluded that if China intercepted ‘at least some’, inbound fossil fuel shipments, Taiwan would run out of gas in a matter of weeks.
An exciting week for China watchers worldwide. Have a great weekend everyone, and see you next week for more China news and views.
- Liddy
If you would like to explore any of the Council on Geostrategy’s PRC-focused research papers, click here to visit the China Observatory.