Chinese foreign minister to visit London in February
Shein cannot confirm the absence of Xinjiang cotton in British products; A Chinese rival to ChatGPT emerges
Observing China is the essential newsletter to understand the UK-PRC relationship, explained in the context of global developments.
The announcement of the upcoming visit to the United Kingdom (UK) of Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), could not come at a more politically charged moment. Domestically, the public is awaiting the outcome of Beijing’s controversial request to upgrade its current embassy to one 24 times its size. His Majesty’s (HM) Government appears to be preparing to acquiesce. Wang’s visit is hardly likely to set them back, particularly as his trip is expected to occur around the days of a local inquiry hearing relating to Beijing’s proposals for the new embassy which is taking place on 11th February.
Internationally, what will Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), make of this visit?
Welcome back to Observing China.
1.1 Beijing continues to offer Moscow a lifeline from sanctions
The PRC’s crude oil imports from Russia reached a record high last year. Following the sanctions imposed on Moscow following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s oil and gas industry naturally suffered. Beijing, however, saw an opportunity to obtain these critical resources at heavily discounted prices, thereby increasing Russia’s reliance on the PRC.
1.2 New bill asks US Congress to strip PRC of its normal trade relations status
On 24th January, two new bills were introduced in the US Congress seeking to remove the PRC of its permanent normal trade relations status (previously known as ‘most favoured nation’), which would essentially remove Beijing’s enjoyment of lower tariffs. The only countries in the world which do not enjoy normal trade relations status with the US are Belarus, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
This news was announced on the same day that Trump stated he ‘would rather not’ impose tariffs on the PRC. Wish me luck in keeping up with the treacled mess of the US-PRC trade war!
1.3 Tokyo promises more defence spending to counter Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea
Takeshi Iwaya, Foreign Minister of Japan, explained that the decision to increase defence spending comes as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PRC’s armed forces, is evermore aggressive in the South China Sea. This announcement also makes Japan the latest country to commit to more defence spending to reassure Trump. In the same week, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State to the US, reaffirmed America’s support to the Philippines to counter Beijing’s regional aggression.
1.4 Bangkok under suspected pressure from Beijing to deport fleeing Uyghurs
‘When we thought about being sent back to China, we would have preferred to die in Thailand.’ These are the harrowing words of some of the Uyghurs who fled the PRC in 2013 and 2014 under worsening oppression of their ethnic group, and found themselves stuck in limbo in immigration detention centres in Thailand. Eventually, many women and children were granted asylum in Turkey, but human rights groups believe that those left behind in the immigration centre in Bangkok (nearly all are believed to be men), are the victims of pressure exerted by Beijing on Bangkok to be deported to the PRC. In July 2015, Thailand ordered a mass deportation of 109 Uyghur asylum seekers to Beijing without warning.
1.5 US withdrawal from World Health Organisation (WHO) leaves room for PRC pressure
The latest withdrawal of the US, the biggest funding contributor to the World Health Organisation (WHO) may give Beijing more propaganda leverage. It may allow Beijing to promote misleading statistics of its donation to the WHO. While Beijing comes second to the US on funding by assessed contributions (which are compulsory for membership), these make up only a small part of the WHO’s budget compared to voluntary contributions, and they are determined as a percentage of a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A country’s total funding to the WHO is considered in combination with both assessed and voluntary contributions.
In the 2022-2023 period, the US paid £176 million in assessed contributions, while the PRC paid £93 million. For voluntary contributions in the same period, the US contributed £800 million, while the PRC donated a mere £34 million, and the UK donated over £99 million. Because of this, the PRC is still leagues behind the US in terms of overall funding to the WHO. In fact, in overall funding between 2022-2023, the US contributed more than £1 billion, the UK’s contribution was in excess of £319 million, while the PRC’s was a mere £127 million.
Over the last few years, former United Nations (UN) diplomats have raised concerns over the coercion by Chinese diplomats to ‘make Chinese policies UN policies’. For example, Karen Pierce, former British Representative to the UN, issued a statement in 2019 asking for unrestricted access to the detention camps of Xinjiang. The report from this time alleged that Chinese diplomats were said to have told their Austrian counterparts that should they sign Britain’s letter, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would not grant the Austrian Government the land it needed for a new embassy in Beijing.
1.6 Open-source large language model (LLM) startup from PRC becomes most downloaded application
On 20th January, the artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek, based in the PRC, introduced R1, a specialised model targeted at advanced problem solving. Last week, it became the most downloaded application in the App Store in the US, overtaking similar applications such as ChatGPT. Some publications have reported the potential cybersecurity risks of feeding vast amounts of data into an application owned by a PRC entity. The same analysis puts forth the case that the application’s rapid success is partially due to the more lax restrictions around data protection in the CCP, which allows entities greater access to data which is fundamental in building these large language models, whereas in the free and open nations companies might face greater restrictions.
As pointed out in our TikTok Investigator piece, under the PRC’s National Intelligence Law of 2017, all entities are legally obliged to provide the CCP with any data that the government deems necessary for national security.
Entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley have lauded DeepSeek’s innovation while warning that the US can no longer afford to be complacent in the so-called ‘tech race’.
2.1 A commentary by the Hudson Institute discusses how the US can rebuild its fleet to counter the expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The PRC’s shipbuilding capacity is more than 200 times larger than that of the US.
2.2 A piece in the Brookings Institution looks at analysts’ expectations in the PRC for bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing in light of the return of Trump to the White House.
2.3 A policy brief by the Centre for European Reform discusses how Germany can survive the competition threat to its manufacturing industry posed by Beijing’s latest industrial policy.
3.1 PRC foreign minister due to visit London in February
According to The Guardian, Wang will visit London in February, to hold the first UK-China Strategic Dialogue since 2018. The dialogue is essentially a platform where senior British and Chinese officials set out regular meetings to discuss a variety of key topics in the bilateral relationship, spanning trade, security and international affairs. The recent UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue, under the auspices of which Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, travelled to the PRC, is a key component of the overall UK-China Strategic Dialogue.
3.2 Shein tells British lawmakers it does not rule out Xinjiang cotton in UK products
Following a grilling inspection in parliament on 7th January, Yinan Zhu, the general counsel for Europe, Africa and the Middle East of the Chinese e-commerce company Shein, has said that the fast fashion giant ensures that none of its products sold in the US violate the country’s Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act. This reassures American consumers that none of the products contain cotton suspected to be harvested under forced labour of the Uyghur ethnic group. But the UK does not have equivalent legislation, and as such, Zhu said that Shein can only confirm the absence of such cotton in countries where it is legally required. Shein is planning to launch an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange by April, after US lawmakers rejected the same request due to ethical reasons concerning the origin of the cotton.
3.3 British politician says UK can enjoy relations with both Taipei and Beijing
Sarah Champion, Co-chair of the British-Taiwanese All Party Parliamentary Group and Chair of the International Development Committee, has said in an interview with Taiwanese media that maintaining strong ties with Beijing does not have to come at the expense of a ‘fruitful relationship’ with Taipei.
Champion said that she and other parliamentarians who support London pursuing strong ties with Taipei have made submissions to HM Government’s new PRC strategy known as the ‘China audit’, due to be finalised in the coming months.
3.4 Part of Royal Navy and Rolls-Royce £9 billion nuclear submarine deal designated for AUKUS
Part of the eight-year contract between Rolls-Royce and the Ministry of Defence (MOD) will provide support for the beginning of contracts for the new AUKUS defence agreement – a tripartite defence agreement between US, UK and Australia seen by many in free and open nations as a means to counter Beijing’s increasing regional belligerence.
4.1 The day after Trump’s inauguration, Xi and Putin, President of Russia, had a virtual meeting where the General Secretary of the CCP proclaimed that this year, he wants to take the bilateral relationship to ‘a new height’. Xi reiterated the need for the two countries to ‘defend their legitimate interests’, and Putin reassured him that Russia ‘firmly supports the fact that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and firmly opposes “Taiwan independence” in any form’.
4.2 On 22nd January, Xinhua reported that Zheng Zeguang, Chinese Ambassador to the UK, lauded the continued thawing of UK-PRC relations. However, Zheng warned that:
Most importantly, we should handle bilateral relations in the spirit of mutual respect, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit. We do have differences and sensitive issues between us, and they have to be dealt with properly.
To better understand what Zeng means, recall Xi’s four ‘red lines’ outlined in November 2024 which must not be crossed in order to have a fruitful US-PRC relationship – the same will apply to Britain: ‘the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right’. The ‘path and system’ refers to the rule of the CCP and socialism, while ‘development right’ refers to anything from increasing the capacity of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to the extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
It seems that as the cold winter continues to thaw, so will UK-PRC relations. We still have a few weeks before Wang’s visit – keep an eye out for next week’s newsletter to read the reactions of other politicians, and our analysis of what the likely outcomes might be.
For those of you who have missed Gray Sergeant’s Taiwan Take, it will be back this week, bigger and better than before as one of Observing China’s Investigators. If you don’t already, subscribe to Observing China and you’ll receive it directly in your inbox – Gray will be analysing the implications of the recent Chinese military developments on Beijing’s ability and willingness to take Taiwan.
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Grace Theodoulou – Policy Fellow, China Observatory
Email: grace@geostrategy.org.uk
If you would like to explore any of the Council on Geostrategy’s PRC-focused research papers, click here to visit the China Observatory.