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Observing China is the essential newsletter to understand the UK-PRC relationship, explained in the context of global developments.

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‘We live in a world ​of wolves now. We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows’, one European Union (EU) diplomat told Reuters last week, as Brussels’ goods trade deficit with Beijing surpassed €1 billion (approximately £900 million) per day.

As Brussels becomes increasingly tough on Beijing’s trade practices, what will this mean for the successor of Sir Keir Starmer, who resigned as Prime Minister on Monday? Andy Burnham, Member of Parliament (MP) for Makerfield, is tipped to succeed Sir Keir. Given his previous position as Mayor of Manchester for nine years prior to returning to Parliament, we do not yet have significant insight into his foreign policy – although he does boast trade negotiation experience with Beijing.

What we do know is that Sir Keir’s successor will inherit the delicate reconstruction of the fragile relationship between London and Beijing forged by Starmer. Besides domestic debates about the prudence of this decision, Brussels’ increasingly tough trade stance on Beijing, along with the intensifying competition between the United States (US) and the PRC, will be additional obstacles to navigate.

Last October, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Donald Trump, President of the US, reached a trade truce with some trepidation. Despite some recent trampling over the truce, Trump appears eager to continue meeting Xi, and this year may see up to four in-person talks.

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