A tale of two ‘Justice Missions’: Taiwan and Venezuela
Will the American military operation influence Chinese plans?
The Investigator | No. 01/2026
In the space of the same week, but on opposite sides of the globe, world leaders sent forth their militaries. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) – carried out a live-fire exercise around Taiwan, while the United States (US) carried out Nicolás Maduro, the deposed President of Venezuela, from Caracas. However, connection between the two events has been greatly exaggerated.
Operation ‘JUSTICE MISSION 2025’
It is important to put both the timing and content of the PLA activity into perspective, and to strip away Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda. The two-day exercise of 29th-30th December fits the pattern of the last three years. Its conduct was incremental rather than exceptional.
Chinese propaganda has pushed the suggestion that the exercise was in response to the US$11 billion (£8.2 billion) arms sale by the US to Taiwan. While it was the largest ever arms sale, it is unlikely to have been a surprise when it was announced on 18th December. Donald Trump, President of the US, has made no secret of his demand that Taiwan take greater responsibility for its defence. Lai Ching-te, President of Taiwan, has committed to raising the country’s defence budget to 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 and to 5% by 2030. The resultant increase in the supply of weapons is likely to come from the US.
An exercise on this scale would take months of preparation. Since 2022, the PRC has conducted large-scale exercises to practise invasion or blockade twice a year, once in spring (April twice and May) and once in winter (January, October and December). Another large-scale exercise was therefore on the stocks. The April exercise was named ‘STRAIT THUNDER 2025A’, which suggested a later ‘2025B’, even if the PLA substituted a more self-righteous name in ‘JUSTICE MISSION 2025’.
For propaganda purposes, the starting gun may have waited for the announcement of the weapons sale, just as in April it may have been timed deliberately after Lai described the CCP as a ‘hostile force’ and announced a raft of security measures. The CCP never misses an opportunity to reinforce the propaganda loudhailer.
Operation JUSTICE MISSION 2025 represents a continued tightening of the screw of military threat, with reports of crossings inside Taiwan’s 12 nautical mile territorial waters and large numbers of intrusions. In the Global Times, an English-language CCP news outlet – and therefore to be taken as a statement of the official line – a National Defence University professor made clear that blockading Taiwan was the focus of the exercise in three areas: nearshore (Matsu and islands close to the mainland); Taiwan island itself; and the sea (including subsea) and air to the east of Taiwan, including at long ranges.
The message was aimed at the US: the PLA will prevent help being sent to Taiwan. Graphics in Chinese media showed ships to the east of Taiwan being intercepted. In the words of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the CCP, ‘This is a serious warning to Taiwan independence separatist forces and external interference forces.’ Given the ongoing spat with Japan over remarks made by Sanae Takaichi, Prime Minister of Japan, about conflict over Taiwan being a ‘situation threatening Japan’s survival’, Japan was also undoubtedly one of those ‘external interference forces’.
Venezuela’s relevance to Taiwan
Hours before the American operation against Maduro, a high-level Chinese delegation had met the erstwhile dictator in Caracas. In his speech three days earlier at the Symposium on the International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations, Wang Yi, Politburo member and Foreign Minister of the PRC, had said, ‘We closely follow the developments in Latin America and the Caribbean, and will firmly support LAC [Latin America and the Caribbean] countries in defending sovereignty and national dignity…’ Not that closely – not that firmly.
For Beijing, the downsides of the American action surely outweigh any upsides. The CCP has invested considerable resources in Latin America – not least around US$60 billion (£44.5 billion) in Venezuela – and must be fearful for its long-term returns. Cuba, another Chinese ally, is likely to come under severe pressure if the US prevents Venezuelan oil from reaching the island. Hitherto reliant on Venezuela for energy, Cuba could see economic collapse. For the PRC itself, Venezuelan oil imports, at roughly 4% of total imports, are not crucial.
Where the CCP will make hay is in propaganda. The American action will be further evidence for its line that the US is destroying the current world order, while the PRC is upholding it. This plays well with the so-called ‘Global South’. The CCP will brush off accusations of hypocrisy that an invasion of Taiwan is no different from the action in Venezuela. It argues that the US invaded a foreign, sovereign country, whereas Taiwan is neither: it is and always has been a part of China; thus, its ‘reunification’ – whether by peaceful or forceful means – is an ‘internal matter’. Of CCP support for Russia in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the less said the better.
However, the American attack on Venezuela will not make an attack on Taiwan any more likely by providing an excuse to the PRC. Rather than use kinetic war, the CCP seeks to convince Taiwan and the world that ‘reunification’ is inevitable and irresistible, through all means short of an invasion or serious blockade. Neither can be ruled out, but they would happen under conditions which are wholly unaffected by events in Latin America. Those conditions are:
The CCP believes that the PLA possesses overwhelming military power and effectiveness, so that it can win in a very short time and avoid getting bogged down in a war against ‘fellow Chinese’;
The US has no time to come to Taiwan’s aid, even if it wants to, and Europe and other powers have no option but to accept a fait accompli;
The PLA has sufficient regional superiority to convince the US not to try to help Taiwan, while its military capability and confidence are sufficient to repel American attempts if it does seek to help Taiwan;
Self-sufficiency and dominance in the production of semiconductors, so that the PRC can stomach the loss of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which currently produces the bulk of the world’s semiconductors, and being cut off from American technology; and
An economy sufficiently self-contained and robust to weather the inevitable plummet in trade and investment and the high likelihood of sanctions without causing a massive rise in unemployment, and thence instability and anger threatening the CCP’s hold on power.
If Taiwan declared independence, the CCP would be likely to invade whether or not the above conditions apply. However, the Taiwanese would not be that unwise.
Sadly, cross-strait relations will not enter calm waters in 2026 – the Taiwan presidential election in early 2028 is likely to make the latter part of 2027 rough, particularly if it appears likely that the Democratic People’s Party will win for a fourth successive time. The CCP will continue to raise the temperature through the normal playbook of interference, pressure and threat.
It is not beyond imagination that the PRC could, in the next few years, ‘persuade’ – by blockade, and deprivation of water and energy – the islands of Jinmen and Matsu to welcome ‘reunification’. It could even risk taking the Pratas Islands or Taiping Island (Taiwanese outposts in the South China Sea) if the tiger of nationalism which Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, has stirred up requires some meat to be thrown its way.
Charles Parton OBE is Chief Adviser to the China Observatory at the Council on Geostrategy.
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