The Investigator | No. 04/2026
The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) will be approved at the end of the National People’s Congress (NPC), which begins on 5th March. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reports on last year’s adoption of a draft at the Fourth Central Committee plenum have set out its general measures.
It is a commonplace saying that foreign policy is domestic policy carried out abroad – but for the CCP, the inverse is true. Chinese foreign policy, whose mainspring is an abiding anti-Americanism, is steering domestic policy.
Certainly, this claim is exaggerated: it is easy to point to purely domestic concerns – such as local government debt, the real estate market, unemployment and a mismatch of skills, and a long term water shortage (most the result of an economic model described by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CCP, in 2013 as ‘unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable’ – all adjectives which remain relevant). Nevertheless, the FYP and future domestic policies will be heavily influenced by foreign policy considerations.
The ‘struggle’ against America and the ‘West’
As the ‘Recommendations’ for formulating the 15th FYP stressed:
Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, and hegemonism and power politics pose greater threats. The international economic and trade order is facing grave challenges, and global economic growth lacks steam. Major-country rivalry is becoming more intricate and intense than ever.
The perception that the United States (US) is out to repress and contain the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) rise has been a leitmotif of past decades. On coming to power, Xi wasted no time in emphasising the struggle with America and the free and open nation successors to the Western bloc. It was the backdrop to his first Politburo speech, where he set out how to avoid falling into the trap which led to the fall of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.
Three months later, the CCP promulgated ‘Document No. 9’, an ideological screed excoriating the political, economic and social values of the free and open nations. Since then, there has been plenty of talk of an economic systems war, a governance systems war and, above all, a science and technology war.
Xi has also made clear that the battlefield for that war is the so-called ‘Global South’. It is towards those countries in particular that the CCP has constructed its foreign policy architecture of a ‘community of shared future for mankind’ supported by the four ‘Global Initiative’ pillars (Development, Security, Civilisation and Governance).
Seven areas in the 15th FYP where ‘struggle’ with the US affects policies
The political purity of the CCP
This is always top priority. Internally, its essence is strict obedience to the demands of ‘Xi Jinping Thought’. The reverse of that coin is a full rejection by CCP members of free and open nations’ ‘universal values’ in favour of 12 ‘core socialist values’, whose detailed definitions are the party’s prerogative.
‘Promoting and practicing the core socialist values’ are sufficiently important to earn their own heading in the ‘Recommendations’ for the 15th FYP. Externally, the four Global Initiatives emphasise ‘common values’ (peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy and freedom), first enunciated by Xi in his speech to the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 2015. ‘He [Xi] has since made profound expositions on the common values of all mankind many times.’ Unsurprisingly, such expositions condemn the values behind ‘Western’ actions.
The importance of security
The concept that ‘development is the foundation of security, and security is the condition for development’ – as described in an article in the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the CCP, and of course attributed to Xi – was born in April 2014, when he ‘creatively proposed the overall national security outlook at the first meeting of the Central National Security Commission’.
It has since climbed higher in the firmament of CCP policy: it became ‘a major principle of the party’s governance’ at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. In October 2020, the fifth plenum included it in the guiding ideology for the 14th FYP. Two years later, the 20th Party Congress wrote it into the CCP’s constitution. It has figured in top level meetings and documents ever since.
While ‘build[ing] a solid security baseline in development’ means solving pressing economic and social threats to stability emanating from within the PRC, the 15th FYP Recommendations give very considerable emphasis to threats coming from outside the country. The order of topics in CCP documents matters, and it is important to note that the backdrop to the two priorities given pride of place is the need to avoid dependencies on the US and its allies and partners.
Modernisation and reinforcement of the industrial base
The PRC will continue to strengthen its manufacturing base by upgrading traditional industries, ‘ensur[ing] that China’s industrial chains become more self-supporting and risk-resilient’. Fostering emerging industries and industries of the future means developing ‘pillar industries’ and ‘extensively apply[ing] new technologies’.
A high-quality service sector is envisaged, while new types of infrastructure are to be integrated with modernised traditional infrastructure. The Recommendations call for enhancing ‘the diversity and resilience of international transportation routes. It is not hard to see these measures as aimed at avoiding dependencies on ‘hostile foreign forces’.
Domination of the new sciences and technologies, and emerging industries
The priority awarded second place is ‘Achieving greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology and steering the development of new quality productive forces’. This covers ‘original innovation and breakthroughs in core technologies in key fields’, with an emphasis on long-term support for ‘basic research’.
The call is for ‘strengthening self-sufficiency in scientific and technological infrastructure’, and ensuring that advances and innovations quickly enter practical application by supporting leading companies. The education system and immigration of global talent are also to underpin this aim. Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) must be fully integrated into economic development. The CCP sees self-reliance and self-sufficiency in the technologies and industries of the future as essential for avoiding dependence on the US.
Modernising the PRC’s national security system and capacity
The national security system merits its own chapter heading in the Recommendations. The emphasis is more on the international aspects of security than CCP control of domestic threats to its continued rule. The first section talks of refining mechanisms for ensuring national security in foreign affairs and stepping up the fight against ‘foreign sanctions, interference and long-arm jurisdiction’.
When it comes to key sectors for building national security capacity, the priority areas include food; energy and resources; key industrial and supply chains and major infrastructure; strategic mineral resources; the security of strategic corridors; and developing a strategic hinterland and ensuring backup plans for key industries. Emerging domains include cyberspace, data, AI, biology, ecology, nuclear energy, outer space, deep sea, the polar regions and low-altitude airspace.
Most of these areas are foreign-facing. For example, food security and avoiding reliance on foreign supplies of seed has long been a top priority for the CCP. Grain can be bought on the international market at prices lower than in the PRC, but doing so would mean a greater reliance on free and open nations – something to be minimised, even if it cannot be entirely avoided.
The contrast with the ‘Proposal’ for the FYP from the 2020 plenum is stark. There, international concerns hardly figured, with the focus being on domestic challenges to security. Five years later, the CCP is clear that major challenges are exogenous, and that domestic policies must be aligned with that reality.
A more open call for military-civilian fusion
A striking feature of the 2025 Recommendations is the emphasis on military-civilian fusion, something which, in recent years, the CCP had gone quiet after it aroused ‘Western’ disquiet. No longer, it would seem. The CCP is increasingly conscious of, and confident in, its ‘struggle’ with other powers:
We should deepen military-civilian reforms and establish a well-regulated, orderly framework where both sides fulfil their respective functions and work in close concert with each other. We should move faster to develop strategic capabilities in emerging fields and work toward effective integration between new quality productive forces and new combat capabilities so that the development of one helps drive that of the other.
This section also talks of promoting interoperability between military and civilian standards, enhancing military-civilian alignment and ensuring that all major infrastructure facilities meet national defence requirements so strategic needs are better fulfilled in advance.
Internationalisation of the renminbi
Internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB) has been talked of for many years. In a speech to high-level officials in January 2024, Xi said that for the PRC to realise the ambition of becoming a financial powerhouse, it must ‘have a strong currency, widely used in international trade, investment, and foreign exchange markets, and holding the status of a global reserve currency’. The Recommendations call is more modest:
…advance the internationalisation of the RMB, pursue greater openness of RMB capital accounts, and build a homegrown, risk-controllable cross-border RMB payment system. We should promote reform in global economic and financial governance…
The CCP has seen the damage which the US can inflict through ‘foreign sanctions, interference and long-arm jurisdiction’, hence its desire to move away from a US dollar-dominated international financial system. However, progress is likely to remain limited. Fully opening the capital account and other measures run contrary to the party’s devotion to control.
The other side of the coin: Creating dependencies
Most of the measures discussed above are motivated by a desire to avoid dependencies on ‘hostile foreign forces’. However, they also make foreign countries dependent upon the PRC. The processing of rare earths is the most egregious example, but increasingly areas such as solar and wind energy, electric vehicles and batteries, and telecommunications equipment and cellular modules are dominated by Chinese companies.
This gives the CCP considerable geopolitical leverage. In many cases, it would bestow the ability to disrupt or destroy critical national infrastructure in the event of hostilities, as well as allow the harvesting of vast amounts of data.
Conclusion
The reports to the National People’s Congress in March and the new FYP will cover all aspects of governing the PRC. Even if the space devoted to foreign affairs is usually short, behind the emphasis on self-reliance and ‘development and security’ lies an eye fixed firmly on an unstable external environment and the blurring of internal and external security.
The CCP sees the global future as one of ‘struggle’; of self-reliance and decoupling; of a fading distinction between military and civilian technologies and industries; of creating dependencies; of an identity between national and economic security. Free and open countries need to see this clearly and react accordingly.
That does not mean ceasing to pursue trade and investment, no longer working with the PRC on climate change and other global problems, or discouraging academic and cultural exchanges. It means engagement with eyes wide open.
In the cases of the United Kingdom (UK) and some European countries, it means considering whether it is wise to allow Chinese companies to be involved in critical national infrastructure, such as wind energy and power grids – particularly when, in Britain’s case, security concerns ruled out Chinese participation in the nuclear industry – or whether it is wise to welcome Chinese investment in the vehicle sector, if the connectivity involved in modern cars and trucks would render a country’s logistics system dependent upon the CCP’s goodwill and even make it inoperable during a time of hostilities.
The 15th FYP is a massively important document. It requires study by foreigners. Behind its many targets and aspirations lies great geopolitical significance. Xi has been clear since he came to power that there is a clash of systems and values, and that the PRC must attain the ‘dominant position’.
The FYP gives pointers as to how that is to be achieved. Ignore them, and free and open countries may find that, under CCP suzerainty, they become less free and less open.
Charles Parton OBE is Chief Adviser to the China Observatory at the Council on Geostrategy.
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