If you’ve been reading the news, or only skimming the headlines over the past few months, you will have seen just how ubiquitous the People’s Republic of China (PRC) seems to be.

Be it semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence (AI), numerous state visits to Beijing, trade wars with Brussels or Washington, it is clear that the PRC is shaping global trends. However, it can still be difficult to discern what powers this ubiquitous presence on the world stage.

Through my analysis, I hope to show that mostly, Beijing does indeed have a strategy linking its global engagement in these sectors, and often that becomes clearest in the developments which do not get the most attention in the headlines.

In the past week, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of the PRC, has met with his counterparts from Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and Pakistan, respectively. He met with them as part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-led economic and security organisation positioned as a counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) – an equivalence which members of the SCO vehemently disagree with. Beijing, as I wrote in a recent newsletter, sees NATO as a ‘warmonger’, and itself as a peacemaker.

The SCO continues to morph into something beyond a sinocentric security organisation; as I explain below, it is a forum where Beijing – clearly the most powerful member – can soft-launch its foreign policy strategies to a group of friends before hopefully extending them beyond the bloc in the coming years.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

It has barely been a week since my last newsletter but a lot has happened.

Developments in the South China Sea reached explosive new heights last Sunday, when for the first time, Beijing conducted a live fire drill in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) – just two weeks after test-firing its first ever dummy warhead from a nuclear submarine into the waters of the Pacific.

On Monday, Andy Burnham officially became the United Kingdom’s (UK) latest Prime Minister, prompting a rather anodyne congratulatory message from Li Qiang, Premier of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), on his appointment. That said, more insightful analysis from Chinese think tankers on what Burnham’s premiership could mean for UK-PRC relations is included in section 4.1 below.

Last Friday, we obtained a clearer idea of what Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), was trying to say during a rambling speech about supposed election interference by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Mark Warner, a US Senator and Vice-Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, clarified that while Beijing is a serious strategic competitor to Washington, and does pose threats, regarding foreign interference in the specific elections mentioned by Trump, ‘the facts have not changed’. It is more likely that the President is ‘distorting’ these threats for political purposes.

This topic was apparently left unmentioned during the recent meeting between the American and Chinese foreign ministers during the sidelines of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, which began in Manila on Tuesday.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Endless names of forums and acronyms can become tiresome, to the point that their significance is lost. But today, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) forum opens in Shanghai – hosted annually by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), previous guests have included Elon Musk.

This year, for the first time since the conference began in 2018, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), appeared in person and gave a keynote speech. He has announced measures which promote the PRC’s use of AI as a force for good – some of which are sure to entice new and emerging partners.

At the same time, others continue to point out areas where Beijing could do more to exert its influence to achieve peace.

Last week, I wrote how during a meeting with Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of the PRC, his counterpart Espen Barth Eide applied pressure for the PRC to use its influence with the Kremlin to convince Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, to enter into negotiations over a peace deal with Ukraine.

Last Friday, Lindsey Graham, United States (US) Senator, echoed the same sentiments during a visit to Kyiv, stating that the PRC has an ‘oversized’ influence over Putin, even going so far as to say that ‘the road to ending this ⁠war, the road to peace, passes through Beijing more than it does (through) Washington, Kyiv, or Moscow.’

Just a couple of weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow signed their ‘no limits’ strategic partnership.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Earlier this week, a typhoon churning over the People’s Republic of China (PRC) caused 60,000 people to be evacuated from their homes, prompting the country’s leadership to call for an ‘all out rescue’ effort. As these efforts were underway, facing warnings of the incoming Typhoon Bavi, leaders of member countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) met for an annual summit in Ankara. A tacit agreement was reportedly made between some to omit mentioning the World Cup red card fiasco to the responsible alliance member, who also happens to be its largest benefactor – the United States (US).

On more serious matters, Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, stated that the alliance cannot afford to be ‘naive’ about the PRC, in reference to the recent missile test Beijing conducted only on Monday (see 2.1 below).

The PRC keeps a watchful eye on NATO. For a long time, the alliance did not solicit emotive analysis from Beijing, although the tone has hardened in the past few years, with an op-ed from state media published just yesterday claiming it is ‘a Cold War relic that should have long since been consigned to the dustbin of history’.

Beijing’s concern is whether the alliance may seek to expand its remit to the Indo-Pacific, an anxiety frequently mentioned in international-facing state media. NATO has signed Individually Tailored Partnership Programmes with Japan, and other partnerships with Australia and New Zealand, which the PRC sees as evidence of the alliance ‘stirring up conflict and instability’ on its doorstep.

As the NATO leaders agreed upon a £37 billion missile acquisition, the PRC and Russia held their annual joint military drills in the waters and airspace off the coast of Qingdao.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Yesterday, two important measures came into effect regarding the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which I have covered over the past few months. First is the Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law, which Beijing adopted in March this year.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) says it is ‘to further strengthen [sic] the unity and cohesion of the Chinese nation’, and that the PRC’s ethnic minorities will benefit from it. However, human rights experts outside the PRC warn that it aims to erode their rights and rituals, with a view to forced assimilation.

The other, less controversial (to some) measure that came into effect was the tax on small packages entering the European Union (EU) from third countries, in a move seen to be targeting the PRC. According to the EU, 91% of all parcels valued at less than €150 (~£130) – and thus eligible for not paying tax – which entered the largest multi-country single market in the world in 2024 were from the PRC.

Meanwhile, a high-level business delegation from the PRC is in the UK, with the aim to launch a platform to help British businesses expand in the Chinese market.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

‘We live in a world ​of wolves now. We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows’, one European Union (EU) diplomat told Reuters last week, as Brussels’ goods trade deficit with Beijing surpassed €1 billion (approximately £900 million) per day.

As Brussels becomes increasingly tough on Beijing’s trade practices, what will this mean for the successor of Sir Keir Starmer, who resigned as Prime Minister on Monday? Andy Burnham, Member of Parliament (MP) for Makerfield, is tipped to succeed Sir Keir. Given his previous position as Mayor of Manchester for nine years prior to returning to Parliament, we do not yet have significant insight into his foreign policy – although he does boast trade negotiation experience with Beijing.

What we do know is that Sir Keir’s successor will inherit the delicate reconstruction of the fragile relationship between London and Beijing forged by Starmer. Besides domestic debates about the prudence of this decision, Brussels’ increasingly tough trade stance on Beijing, along with the intensifying competition between the United States (US) and the PRC, will be additional obstacles to navigate.

Last October, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Donald Trump, President of the US, reached a trade truce with some trepidation. Despite some recent trampling over the truce, Trump appears eager to continue meeting Xi, and this year may see up to four in-person talks.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Without naming any names, the Group of Seven (G7) countries laid out a plan this week during the annual summit in France to reduce their reliance on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for critical minerals. In a joint statement focusing exclusively on building resilient supply chains in this sector, the leaders stated:

In so doing, we aim to significantly reduce [sic] our dependencies on a single supplier outside the G7 and partner countries for rare earths and permanent magnets to under 60% by 2030 and continuing to decrease further over time, with an ambition to reach 50% as soon as possible.

Additional steps to reduce reliance on the PRC – which manages over 90% of the world’s rare earth processing – include a digital platform which will track supply chain vulnerabilities and predict potential market distortions in the industry.

Naturally, the preliminary deal to end the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz signed by Washington and Tehran stole the spotlight in the coverage of the summit. However, several other key geopolitical issues were raised at the G7 summit, where the PRC’s critical role was discussed with varying levels of overtness.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Last week, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance – consisting of Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States (US) – issued a joint bulletin warning of sophisticated campaigns by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to solicit classified information on military and intelligence matters.

Much of the content is similar to a warning issued by MI5 last year, whereby the British intelligence services stated that state-sponsored operations from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) saw attempts to recruit Britons with useful or classified information through professional networking sites such as LinkedIn.

But the warning issued last week elaborates on the details of these operations, such as advertisements of fake employment opportunities, with the purpose of extracting sensitive information from applicants during each subsequent interview phase.

The joint warning was published as Yvette Cooper, Foreign Secretary, visited Beijing to hold the 11th UK (United Kingdom)-PRC Strategic Dialogue in the PRC, prompting defensive remarks from Whitehall.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

‘A war over Taiwan will drag the Philippines, kicking and screaming, into the conflict’, Ferdinand Marcos, President of the Philippines, stated last summer. His incendiary remarks resurfaced this week as Manila and Washington conduct their annual wargaming exercises in the Indo-Pacific.

The defence drills aim to prepare both militaries for two of the region’s most likely future conflict zones: the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea. For the Strait, the drills are taking place north of the Philippines, facing the Taiwan Strait, fewer than 120 miles from the island’s coast. In the South China Sea, they are near a province which has seen repeated escalation of conflict between Philippine and Chinese forces and fishermen in recent years.

For the first time ever, Japan has joined these drills, days after signing a US$7 billion (£5.18 billion) deal with Australia, which will see the construction of 11 warships – Japan will build three, and Australia eight. Canberra is also participating in the aforementioned military drills, as it has done previously.

Guess which country feels targeted by all this?

Welcome back to Observing China.

Please be aware that this will be the last ‘Tracker’ newsletter until 11th June. All other Observing China articles will continue as normal.

Read more

Heads of state or foreign ministers of Spain, Russia, North Korea, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Vietnam have all flocked to Beijing in the past week. The density of foreign dignitary visits, although notable, is not as out of the ordinary as another visit that took place in the past few days – that of Cheng Li-wun, Chairwoman of Taiwan’s opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT).

‘Opposing Taiwan independence’ can help keep war at bay, she opined after meeting with Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Taiwanese security officials claim that while Cheng was in Beijing – the first such meeting between the two nations in a decade – the People’s Republic of China (PRC) nearly doubled the number of military vessels in the East and South China Seas that it usually has – a statement which Beijing denies.

The KMT have stalled the ruling Democratic People’s Party’s (DPP) efforts to increase Taiwan’s defence budget by US$40 billion (£30 billion), which would include substantial purchases of American weapons to develop its asymmetric advantage. Her trip to the PRC reportedly coincided with crucial defence budget talks in Taipei, with her absence drawing further annoyance from some of her opposition peers.

Cheng has stated that she does not believe her pursuit of ‘reconciliation’ across the Taiwan Strait should come at the expense of necessary support from Washington. In any case, Xi will be hopeful that the timing of her visit to Beijing – just one month before Donald Trump, President of the United States (US) is due to visit – will give him leverage.

The KMT in Taipei and the CCP in Beijing are mulling the implementation of a number of measures in the aftermath of the meeting, such as the establishment of a regular communication channel between the two parties, and pushing for the full resumption of flights between Taiwan and the PRC, which have been disrupted as relations deteriorated in recent years.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Following on from last week, leading officials around the world continue to beat a path to Beijing. Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain, will visit the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 11th-15th April for his fourth visit in as many years.

François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Finance of Canada, concluded his visit to the PRC last week, aimed at fostering a ‘pragmatic approach’ with Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the United States (US). Champagne met with He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the PRC, where both sides agreed to increase cooperation on financial services and hold a strategic financial dialogue later this year.

Champagne’s visit follows that of Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, in January, wherein a strategic partnership was signed between Ottawa and Beijing. This marks rapid progress in relations; before Carney’s visit in January, the last such Canadian visit to the PRC was in 2017. Relations deteriorated after Beijing detained two Canadian nationals in response to Ottawa’s extradition of a Chinese national to the US.

In March, a Canadian senator and Liberal Member of Parliament (MP) visited the PRC on a bridge-building mission, where, in light of improved bilateral relations, Beijing expressed its wishes that Ottawa will back its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); a major Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between 12 economies in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

Meanwhile, officials in Kabul have thanked the PRC for its mediation efforts in the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Beijing is also extending its diplomatic outreach to engage other partners in its peace efforts for Iran, as officials in Tehran assert that the PRC pushed them towards accepting the ceasefire deal agreed with the US.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Last week, I wrote about how the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan had engaged the British High Commissioner and the Chinese Ambassador to Islamabad to discuss the ongoing war in its neighbour Iran.

Then, it made an impression that this statement made the news. But a week later, this makes sense. Earlier this week, Ishaq Dar, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan, visited the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for the second time in three months.

The two sides released a joint statement outlining what has been described as a five-point peace plan for ending the conflict in the Middle East. Some analysts suggest that it was Islamabad which approached Beijing, also with the possibility of sounding out the PRC’s willingness to act as a guarantor in a peace deal. The latter would be to make the deal more palatable to Iran, which is close to the PRC. Islamabad is unlikely to have done this without some prior behind-the-scenes conversations with Beijing, Washington, and other important powers, which possibly explains the diplomatic outreach Islamabad has done recently, including with Britain.

This is a complicated situation for Beijing. On the one hand, the PRC would delight in having the opportunity to present itself as the more conciliatory and diplomatic of the two global superpowers in its great power competition with the United States (US). But precisely because of this potential advantage it would gain, Washington may be reluctant to support a significant involvement of Beijing in such a deal.

And also, Beijing’s hitherto cautious response to the conflict has not gone unnoticed, particularly in the Middle East when many of its close partners (not just Iran) have been battered by the conflict. So a prominent role in a peace deal would help the PRC save face. Especially as for years now, Beijing has promoted itself as a more reliable and peaceful partner than Washington to countries around the world.

An offshoot of Beijing’s efforts in mediation has received less media attention than the potential Iran peace deal. A senior Pakistani official announced that, during Ishaq Dar’s trip to the PRC this week, a delegation met with Afghan officials of the Taliban regime in Urumqi, the capital of the PRC’s Xinjiang province. Pakistani officials suggested that it was Beijing that requested the two sides meet. Although a mere initial meeting, the Pakistani officials hope it will set a basis for a ‘full-scale dialogue’ to end months of conflict between Kabul and Islamabad.

Beyond arms sales, the PRC does not typically offer the same level of expeditionary military security guarantees as the US. Beijing plays a different tactic. A crisis hits, and Beijing can paint itself as the sage, diplomatic counterpart to Washington.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

The China Development Forum concluded on Monday in Beijing. The annual two-day forum is when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) presents its economic priorities and investment opportunities to foreign business leaders as well as Chinese officials, economists, and academics.

During the forum, Li Qiang, Premier of the PRC, announced that Beijing intends to increase its imports of high-quality foreign goods in order to promote more balanced trade after a record trade surplus in the PRC’s favour. In January, Beijing noted the world’s largest-ever trade surplus, at an eye-watering US$1.19 trillion (£890 billion) for 2025.

The record proved that the PRC managed to divert its goods away from the United States (US), with whom it was embroiled in a trade war for most of last year. But Beijing managed to soften the blow of the trade war by diverting many of its goods to Latin America, Europe, and Africa, and now many governments in these regions are facing pressure from local manufacturers to decrease imports from the PRC in specific sectors. This spurred Li Qiang to address the trade balance at the global-facing forum in Beijing.

Other news over the past week on the PRC’s foreign policy largely feature Iran and amendments to the National Security Law (NSL) in Hong Kong, which I discuss below. However, an amendment was also made to the equivalent NSL in Macau, which local lawyers claim goes against the Sino-Portuguese Joint Declaration that saw Macau handed over to the administration of the PRC in December 1999.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

In an attempt to coax Beijing to pressure Tehran into opening the vital trade route, Washington claims that 90% of the People Republic of China’s (PRC) oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In reality, the Strait only accounts for approximately 40% of Beijing’s oil supplies.

While Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), has been stealing the limelight over the past few weeks – most recently by requesting a delay to his state visit to Beijing over the conflict in Iran – the PRC has been doing some important foreign policy work of its own in the background.

The PRC will now provide solar energy to Cuba as the Latin American country faces total power outages, and has also offered emergency humanitarian assistance to a number of Middle Eastern countries affected by the ongoing strikes in Iran and Lebanon. Meanwhile, last week, I wrote that direct trains will resume from Beijing to Pyongyang after a six-year hiatus – this will now be matched by a direct flight between the two capitals.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

As the United States (US) and European nations send warships to the Middle East, Beijing is perched on a hill far away like a lofty older cousin looking down at the playground squabbles unfurling before it. Wang Yi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), called for an ‘immediate ceasefire’, stating that Beijing supports the Gulf countries in ‘taking the future of the region into their own hands’.

For the PRC, its stance on Iran fits into its discourse on Taiwan – the definitive issue in its foreign policy, and a country which the PRC considers its own. Beijing expects reciprocity on this issue when it says ‘the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf Arab countries should be respected’.

Interestingly, the two issues recently converged; the PRC claimed it helped to repatriate 93 Taiwanese who were stranded in Turkey, unable to catch their connecting flights to return home as conflict raged in the Middle East. But Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated it was not made aware of this specific incident by any of its representative offices (de facto embassies) abroad. Is one side being entirely dishonest, or is the truth muddled somewhere in between the two?

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the world’s largest oil importer, sourcing approximately half of its crude oil from the Middle East.

In a prescient move, Chinese oil refiners purchased record amounts of Iranian (and Russian) crude oil before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) also stockpiled significant amounts of resources. The United States (US)-Israel-Iran conflict has cut off nearly all shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20% of global oil supplies.

Although the PRC has, in recent years, been the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil, it buys even more from Saudi Arabia. Beijing’s investments in Riyadh and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also far exceed those in Tehran.

Onto more fiscal and less fiery matters, the CCP has just set its lowest economic growth target since 1991. The target of 4.5-5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was announced at this year’s ‘Two Sessions’ series of meetings.

Every year, the National People’s Congress (NPC) – the CCP’s legislative body – and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – an advisory body – hold concurrent but separate meetings to outline the key points of focus for the party over the next year, known as the ‘Two Sessions’. Legislation is typically ratified in these meetings, alongside personnel changes and setting the budget.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

During the past week, the United Nations (UN) has been a prominent forum for Beijing’s foreign policy, from nuclear arms control talks with Washington and Moscow, to its denial of any involvement in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on the four-year anniversary of the invasion.

But perhaps the most colourful comments of them all were made at the UN Human Rights Council by Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In a thinly veiled attack at the United States (US), he warned against any single country assuming the role of a ‘human rights teacher’, further elaborating that these rights should not be used to ‘whitewash hegemony’ or be ‘exploited to adorn democracy’.

Tensions between the PRC and the US are now taking on additional dimensions. Human rights and tariffs have long been bones of contention, but Beijing’s nuclear arsenal is increasingly in the spotlight – as is its logistical support for other authoritarian regimes around the world.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

While the world’s biggest annual migration, which took place in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) during the travel rush of the Lunar New Year – celebrated on Monday – may have captured global headlines, significant geopolitical developments took place behind the scenes. At the Munich Security Conference, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State of the United States (US), and Wang Yi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, gave their speeches, in which they tried to reassure the European Union (EU) that they had not forgotten Brussels.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

Beijing didn’t take too well to the United Kingdom’s (UK) expansion of a visa scheme that opens the door for many Hong Kongers to live and work in Britain. In a statement issued by the Chinese Embassy, a spokesperson claimed that many of the Hong Kongers who relocated to the UK over the past few years have found themselves treated as ‘second class citizens’, facing discrimination and difficulties in making ends meet.

As illustrated in the statement, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) interprets the British National Overseas (BNO) visa scheme as a manipulation in its internal affairs, which will ‘only bring shame’ to the UK and cause it to ‘suffer the consequences of its own actions.’

The change to the visa scheme comes after Beijing sentenced Jimmy Lai, one of the world’s most well-known pro-democracy activists from Hong Kong – and a British citizen – to 20 years in prison.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more

The visit of Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, to Beijing yielded little more than ‘the Labubu doll in his suitcase’ according to Kemi Badenoch MP, Leader of the Opposition.

In the week since his visit, further details of bilateral investment have emerged, including a smattering of Chinese investments in the United Kingdom (UK). But, thus far, none are on the same scale as the AstraZeneca deal to invest US$15 billion (£10.9 billion) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) by 2030. In the company’s own words, this will strengthen its ‘contribution to China’s high-quality development’.

Welcome back to Observing China.

Read more